Evaluating Runway Incursion Risk With Multiple Attribute Risk Assessment

It is obvious that the world air transportation industry is developing rapidly.The airport traffic density also increases gradually within more and more aviation safety problems.Runway safety seriously affects aviation safety,and runway incursion is one of the runway safety problems.In recent years,due to increasing numbers of passengers,operators build runways in order to expand the capacity.At the same time runway and taxiway system becomes complex,resulting in even more runway incursions.Facing with the grim situation,the authorities and practitioners put forward requirements.How to meet needs of consumers and to ensure the safe operation of the runway,to prevent and reduce the number of runway incursions are the focuses of domestic and foreign civil aviation practitioners.This paper takes the runway incursion as the main research object and analyzes the research status of the runway incursion and the key problems that need to be solved through studying the relevant laws and the scholars’ study on runway incursion.Firstly,the meaning and dimension of runway incursion are briefly discussed.R-S-TER model is used to identify and classify the causes of runway incursion.Secondly,the index system of runway incursion incentive is established by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the weight of each index is determined by EXCEL software.Then determine the subject position of human factors in the whole event based on this.Next,the writer uses the multiple attribute risk assessment method to quantify the runway incursion of different grades,and establish the model to carry on the concrete calculation and the example analysis.Through improvement,some drawbacks of traditional multiple attribute risk assessment method has been avoided.This paper is aiming at the quantification of a specific factor.Finally,the causal analysis method and the accident tree multi-factor analysis method are used to analyze the factors leading to the runway incursion and the relationship between them and the writer puts forward relevant rectification opinions.