| Runway incursion is one of the most important hazards for land-based airports.Because of its location in open water aera such as rivers,lakes and seaports,high uncertainties of ships and floating objects,to track water aerodromes runway is more difficult and runway incursion risk is higher.Based on the theories and methods of risk management,grounded theory,fault tree analysis,Bayesian networks,system dynamics,and evolutionary game theory,this dissertation cross-connects multiple methods to analyze the process and characteristics of seaplane takeoff and landing operations,identify,summarize risk factors of water runway incursion,build conceptual models of risk factors.The dissertation constructs mixed probabilistic risk analysis models,organizes risk evolution models to develop safety supervisory evolutionary game models,and integrates models to achieve dynamic early warning of incursion risks and proposes risk management and control countermeasures.The dissertation mainly focuses on the following:(1)Risk factors of water runway incursion are identified using the grounded theory and a conceptual model is constructed.The seaplane take-off and landing operations,the duties division of Participants and the characteristics of operation are analyzed.The impact factors of incursion risk are analysed with the Closest Point of Approach method,the information-processing model,and SHEL model.The main categories of pilots,controllers,airport environment,meteorology and hydrology,equipment and facilities,safety management,and their associated risk factors are identified based on the grounded theory.(2)Using FTA/BBN,RVC and Fuzzy Set theory to construct the evolution model of the water runway incursion risk.Around the seaplane take-off and landing operations,the accident causal chain and the occurrence scene are identified,a fault tree model of water runway incursion is constructed,and the qualitative analysis such as minimum cut set,minimum diameter set,and structural importance is conducted.Based on FTA/BBN analysis and expert revision,a Bayesian network model is constructed.The prior probability and conditional probability are determined using RVC and fuzzy set theory.A risk assessment matrix is constructed according to risk acceptance criteria to evaluate ship-related,floating-object related and comprehensive risk ratings.(3)An organization risk evolution model of water runway incursion is constructed using system dynamics theory.The relationship between organizational safety culture,safety management system and safety performance is established to build an incursion risk evolution model.Using SD as a modeling tool,qualitative modeling and quantitative simulation analysis are conducted under the interaction of three performance goals of safety,business and finance.(4)The evolutionary game theory is used to analyze the safety supervision strategy of water aerodromes,and system dynamics is used for simulation analysis.In order to explore the game strategies of safety regulators,water aerodromes,and operational level employees in the incursion risk control of water runways,a tripartite evolutionary game model based on payment function matrix is constructed,and system dynamics is used to simulate the evolutionary game process.(5)Integrate the above subsystems to build dynamic early warning models.The models built for each module,such as landing and landing operations,organization safety management,and external safety supervision,are integrated to build a dynamic warning model for the incursion risk of water runways.Based on the analysis of simulation results,risk management and control measures are proposed to provide a reference for the safety management of water aerodromes.The mainly innovation points of this dissertation are as follows:(1)Based on the process of risk propagation in the system,constructing a probabilistic risk analysis framework.(2)Using system dynamics to analyze the relationship between organizational safety culture,safety management system,and safety performance under the multi-performance target framework.(3)A tripartite evolutionary game model based on the payment function matrix is constructed,and the system dynamics is used to simulate and analyze the evolutionary game process.(4)Integrating the sub-system models of operational level,management level and supervision level to realize dynamic risk early warning. |
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