Quantitative Analysis And Simulation For Runway Incursion Safety Risk Based On System Dynamics

Runway Incursions(RI)is a hot issue which affecting the safety of the airdrome surface safety operations.There are many factors that cause runway incursions.To reduce the occurrence of unsafe runway incursions,it is particularly important to carry out the analysis of relevant cause factor identification and interaction mechanism.The risk analysis methods such as FMEA and fault tree mainly adopt static analysis method,and they are slightly weak in analysis of dynamics.To solve the problems of systematization and lack of integrity,the STPA method was provided.A runway incursion control structure based on system theory was established,and systematic analysis was performed between component behaviors and interactions to obtain unsafe control actions and cause factors.Taking into account quantitative analysis and analysis of the interaction mechanism between elements,a system dynamics(SD)method is proposed which based on the above cause factors.The runway incursions system is divided into four subsystems such as pilot deviations,control operation deviations,vehicle/pedestrian deviation and communication facilities and equipment.The causality was intuitively analyze.Combing the actual,the expressions of variables and the subsystem's safety threshold and risk trends were obtained.The output data based on the analysis of subsystems were counted and a value of risk(Vo R)expression was generated.By application of cases,the occurrence of unsafe incident can effectively be reduced by regulating the behavior of pilots,controllers,and vehicles,reducing workload,and improving communications equipment and equipment support capabilities.The results show that the complexity and dynamic simulation can be achieved by SD,and the method has some advantages in the quantitative risk analysis.The simple qualitative or quantitative risk analysis can be improved by combination of STPA and SD.The rationality and effectiveness of the method was validated by applying the case,and the foundation for runway safety management was laid.