Research On Schedule Risk Management Of Digital Nuclear Power Distributed Instrument&Control System Development

With the fast development of clean energy and nuclear technology,China owns the largest number of nuclear power plants under construction and installed capacity of the world,according to the statistical report of July,2016.DCS is a new type of computer control system with decentralized control and centralized display functions.In recent years,the new nuclear power plants in China have adopted the digital distributed instrument control system.The digital distributed instrument and control(I&C)systemis the nerve center of monitoring,control and protection system of nuclear power plant(NPP).Besides,the digital DCS has the characteristics of high reliability,openness and rapidity.The schedule risk management of the digital DCS development was researched in this thesis.Schedule risk is one of the most important risks in the process of product developmen t,meanwhile,it's should be hedged in the actual project management.In the nuclear power industry,most domestic and foreign research of risk management is mainly focused on construction process and site selection of NPP,besides the quality management of nuclear equipments.There are few reference documentations about the schedule risk management of NPP equipments development.To improve the schedule risk management of digitial NPP DCS development and make specific risk management plan,the subject investigated of this thesis is the schedule risk management of digitial NPP DCS development.The integrated methods of questionnaire,sandbox analysis,expert scoring and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)are adopted in this thesis to identify,analyse and control the schedule risk of the development project.The main work is shown in the following three aspects:(1)This thesis summarizes the characteristics of the project schedule risk management of digital distributed control system.Combined with the characteristics and development process of the digital distributed control system research,the thesis sums up the characteristics of the schedule risk of the project,including long development cycle,many uncertainty factors and so on.(2)The thesis identifies and analyzes the key risk sources of the research programme.The questionnaire survey is made according to the factors involved in the schedule risk management of the digital distributed control system development project.Combined the comprehensive analysis the results of questionnaire survery with sandbox analysis method,the schedule risk factor list is estabilished in this thesis.As a result of research,there are 25 schedule risk factors of digital distributed control system development project.This thesis uses fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)to carry on the quantitative analysis of the schedule risk factors,determines the weight of each risk factor,and obtains the schedule risk evaluation index system of the digital distributed control system development programme.(3)The schedule risk management plan of digital distributed control system is established in this thesis.According to the different sources of the project schedule risk,the thesis puts forward the specific schedule risk management content,measures and management principles.Based on the schedule risk management research of the whole life cycle of the digital distributed control system,the schedule risk management index system and the management plan are established in the thesis.The reasearch has played a positive role in the schedule management of the digital distributed control system development programme,so that the equipments could be provided to nuclear power plant in time according to the contract.Finally,by the analysis of the actual project case,the correctness and effectiveness of the research results of the schedule risk management methods are verified.