Research Schedule Risk Analysis Of The Cattle Hill Tunnel

Relying on the cow back mountain tunnel project, this paper combines the theory with practice, using analytic hierarchy process(ahp) and entropy weight method, grey theory method for cow back mountain tunnel construction schedule risk management analysis, construction schedule risk factors to the cow back mountain management USES the qualitative analysis, quantitative calculation method, the combination of adverse effects of the adverse factors on the project plan target. For the uncertainty factors and the problems it is difficult to control solution scientifically, so that they can use more easy to understand, the simulation analysis method of operation command more forthright, more reasonable and feasible plan to target. Paper, specific research significance is as follows: 1. To strengthen the cow back mountain tunnel construction risk management; 2. Give policymakers credible construction schedule management on the basis of providing effective; 3. Raise the level of railway tunnel construction schedule risk research in China.The author through to the cow back mountain tunnel construction schedule risk factors of theoretical analysis, the quantitative model build, case analysis, combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, proved the feasibility of the theory. Unable to accurately determine the timing of construction schedule risk happened as a result, causes, types, so it is often difficult to be measured directly. So when the construction schedule risk assessment must carry on the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method. This article USES the method of hierarchy analysis, entropy weight method, grey theory method to achieve the result of quantitative analysis, determine the cow back mountain tunnel construction progress the probability of risk factors, and the sorting. On the two analysis methods, comparing the conclusion analysis of these differences, confirm its conclusion the reliability and accuracy of each other, finally chose the five key risk factors put forward targeted measures of risk aversion and risk prevention measures, provides the reliable theory basis for the project management unit.In this paper, the research ideas and content as follows:As a first step, refer to all kinds of construction schedule risk analysis theory principle, the study of domestic and foreign papers, research results, determine the paper research the theory of model, and lay a foundation for the later practice case analysis.The second step, field survey cattle back mountain project implementation, based on the theoretical research of existing construction schedule risk factors, screening of cattle back inventory list, for sure, making questionnaire, to find the target problem the relationship between various factors, through the interconnected classified orderly arrangement, comb problem by decomposition to determine construction schedule risk analysis target layer, criterion layer, criterion layer.The third step, according to the first questionnaire, combine 1 ~ 9 index has a second questionnaire, experts investigation, and judging by objective reality, using mathematical theory, collect data, to give quantitative indexes at all levels.The fourth step, citing mathematical theory, analysis of data model, through analyzing the calculation results, the conclusion build a quantitative model for risk analysis of construction progress and the sorting. Convenient managers get more effective information, this section also for six experts and complement each other, by using a number of expert judgment method of group to the comprehensive ranking, it is concluded that the cow back mountain tunnel construction schedule risk factors comprehensive ranking order, convenient and experts for later construction progress control plan, realize the goal of construction progress. Determine the cow back mountain construction schedule risk factors for sorting, finally comprehensively determine the risk factors for the top 10: timeliness, owner fund owner's management ability, design change frequency, the use of construction funds management, the rationality of the construction schedule, construction unit management ability, the total package management personnel's quality and ability, management quality and ability of supervision unit, the influence of groundwater, the bad geological and weak surrounding rock.Step 5, USES the grey theory, to collect data, verify the six experts cow back mountain tunnel project risk evaluation correlation degree to the cow back mountain, credibility. Six experts through analysis and calculation can be concluded that the judgment of the correlation is all above 0.8, six experts proved consistent, the main point of the high reliability. By grey correlation theory of all kinds of risk at the same time the connection degree between each other, according to the size of the correlation between various factors order to get the top 10 risk factors, for the later construction schedule risk prevention measures, strengthen the management of construction schedule risk process control document of relatively accurate data are given. Analysis of risk factors for the top ten are: construction unit management ability, management quality and ability of supervision unit, the owner's management ability, the frequency of design changes, construction site layout, the influence of mechanical failure rate, mechanical efficiency and performance, timeliness, owner fund shelf team personnel's ability quality, standardization of construction.Step 6, according to the results of the analysis, determine the measures to deal with risks, main measures are: the owner schedule risk control, Work schedule risk control unit, supervision unit schedule risk control, the design change control, cow back mountain tunnel construction control measures of economic progress.Although different tunnel project of construction schedule risk is different, but can use the same analysis model, the research direction of this paper has a certain universal valuesResearch of this paper is mainly used in the project to control the things risk events before construction, formulate prevention measures. As you progress through the project construction, the mutual influence of various events, interference, and risk factors for sorting will be constantly changing, so in the later need to keep track and analyze, set up information management platform, achieve dynamic tracking simulation.