Multi-criteria Decision Making Method Of DEMATEL-ANP Under Type-2 Fuzzy Environment And Its Application In Safety Evaluation Of Subway Operation

As subway is becoming increasingly important in the whole transport system,more and more attention has been payed to the problem of subway operation safety evaluation.Because of the complexity of subway operation system,it includes not only administration regulations system,personnel operating system,the facilities and equipment system,but also complex environment and heavy traffic.However,almost all previous studies about subway operation safety evaluation consisdered each system as independent without considering the relationship between them.Most study defined the problem of subway operation safety assessment as an absolutely quantitative problem,so that the evaluation results had a certain degree of one-sidedness and irrationality.To overcome the drawbacks of previous research,this paper proposes a new multi-criteria decision making model by integrating DEMATEL,ANP and VIKOR together under type-2 fuzzy environment,This article has the following characteristics in theory building and model innovation:First,by analyzing the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the subway operation safety system,this paper introduces type-2 fuzzy decision theory and transforms the language variable of expert opinion into the appropriate type-2 fuzzy values for quantitative calculations.In addition,by classifying and analyzing the domestic and foreign subway operators accident,the main factors which affect the safety of subway are determined.Then according to the relevant provisions of railway transportation,the subway operation safety evaluation system is constructed,which proves to be relatively reasonable.Secondly,since subway operation evaluation has the characteristics of multiple criteria and the combination of quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators,a type-2 DEMATEL-ANP model is constructed under type-2 fuzzy theory.Firstly,the influencial network between the criteria is obtained by quantitative calculation in the type-2 DEMATEL stage.Then taking into account the interaction among indexes,the fuzzy judgment matrix between the rule layer and inside the rule layer is constructed by type-2 ANP model,and the final index weights are received through the final super-matrix calculation.Finally,on the basis of type-2 DEMATEL-ANP model,this paper presents a hybrid VIKOR methods,in which quantitative indicators are obtained according to the traditional VIKOR method,while qualitative indicators calculated using the proposed type-2 VIKOR method.And after a comprehensive assessment by integrating quantitative and qualitative evaluation togather,the final decision results can be obtained.And at last,the operation safety of six lines of Beijing subway lines is evaluated with the proposed model,and the final evaluation results prove the validity of the theories and models proposed in this paper.