Research On Fuzzy Decision-Making Method And Its Application In Safety Assessment Of Rural Hydropower Station

Decision making which is related to people’s daily lives is a basic human behavior. Fromdaily necessities in life, business strategy and development planning in work, to diplomatic andeconomic in nation, decision making exists in everywhere. Interval intuitionistic fuzzy multipleattribute decision making is a kind of decision-making theory. It uses three-dimensionalintegrated data (include membership degree data, non-membership degree data and intuitionisticdata) to describe fuzzy information, which has powerful representation capability. Thus, thiskind of decision making obtains widespread concern in both academia and engineeringcommunity. However, because of its short history, the theoretical system is not complete whichleads to rare research of such decision-making methods.In addition, under the new economic system, social development has a growing demand forelectricity which makes rural hydropower stations renovation become an important means ofgovernment to maintain sustainable development of rural hydropower. In recent years, theproblems of aging equipment and reduced power supply ability exacerbate the imminenttransformation of rural hydropower stations. However, the existing methods of hydropowersafety assessment are manual execution, which makes the relevant personnel need to take atremendous amount of work and it is difficult to ensure effectiveness and consistency of the dataobtained in such machinery and repeat process. Moreover, from obtaining hydropowerunderlying indicator data, expert assessment, to final decision, it takes a long time. This way ofworking process is complicated and trivial which may bring problems. Therefore, this manualexecution has been unable to complete nowadays’ hydropower safety assessment task. For thesereasons, this paper builds a rural hydropower safety assessment system, and applies the twodecision-making methods which proposed in paper to the system.The research on interval intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making methods andrural hydropower safety assessment system makes some innovations and promotions. The mainresearch results are: 1. In connection with problem that has unknown attributes’ weights and its attributepreference value is interval intuitionistic fuzzy data, this paper proposes a sorting method basedon D-S Theory, Mentality Function and Entropy. By using the maximum entropy principle todetermine each attribute’s weight value, and using the D-S Theory to integrate weight value andattribute preference value, the method can get each program’s interval intuitionistic fuzzynumber. With the use of a new sorting method which draws decision makers’ mentality as animpact factor into score function and precise function, the final sort of program can bedetermined. This method which overcomes the defect of simple weighting method, is suitable forsituation where decision makers can not provide attribute weights. By taking decision makers’mentality into model, this method can obtain reasonable and reliable results.2. In connection with problem that has unknown or partly known attribute weights and itsattribute preference value is interval intuitionistic fuzzy data, this paper proposes a sortingmethod based on Prospect Theory and Quantum Evolutionary Algorithm. According to ProspectTheory and intuitionistic fuzzy distance formula, the method can construct intuitionistic fuzzynumber’s prospect value function. Meanwhile, by introducing decision-makers’ risk appetite ofthe program in the decision-making behavior, a nonlinear programming model based onmaximized program-based prospect value can be built. The optimal weight vector can beobtained through the introduction of the Quantum Evolutionary Algorithm. Finally, calculateprospect number of each program through taking the optimal weight vector into prospect valuefunction. According to these values, the final sorting of the programs can be determined.Thismethod which overcomes the problem that decision makers can not provide determined attributeweight’s value or weight information, has a wide range of application value and strongoperability.3. Build and develop rural hydropower safety assessment model and software. In theprocess of building the system, develop principles and steps of modeling firstly. Secondly,determine hydropower evaluation system, information of index hierarchy, weight value, andsecurity evaluation function, etc. Finally, develop software system based on above data.Moreover, the paper applies the two decision-making methods which proposed above to thesystem. By comparing the instances, the two methods are proved to be reasonable and reliable.