The Research Of Spatial Load Forecasting Method Based On The Developmment Degree Of Cell

Spatial load forecasting is used for determining the spatial and temporal characteristics of power load within the area to be measured.It is a complex problem which covers a wide range and includes many uncertain factors.Spatial load forecasting must predict the load value in the future and study the spatial distribution of the load.Spatial load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and designing.Therefore,a high precision of spatial load forecasting result for urban power system planning has important significance.This paper introduces the research status of various forecasting methods and the classification of power load and carries on brief analysis in view of the advantages and disadvantages of each prediction method respectively.It analyzes the characteristics of the spatial electric load,including the non-stationary rising characteristic of the load,standard wave characteristic of the load,the global transmission characteristic of the load,and the saturation characteristic of load.At the same time,it introduces the construction process of electric power geographic information system.The cells are generated at different spatial resolutions,and the load characteristics are analyzed based on multi-scale spatial resolution.This paper based on a large number of historical load data.According to the classified load in different cells have the different development degree,and it causes the cellular load distribution which is not balanced,thus affecting the accuracy of spatial load forecasting results.For this reason,a method of spatial load forecasting based on the development degree of cell load is proposed.The development law of the classified load density is determined by the saturated load value of classified load density and the growth curve.The development degree of the classified load density of each cell is determined.Predicted the classified load density of each cell in the target year,the result is the cellular load of the predicted value.The example is given to verify the validity and practicability.At the same time,the research on spatial load forecasting method is mainly focused on the prediction model and its improvement.The research on the regularity of the spatial load is less.This paper fully analyzed the historical load data.And it analyzes the global transmission of load.A new method of spatial load forecasting based on the global transmission of the load is proposed.Firstly,the center cell is determined.Then,the transmission relationship between the center cell and other cells were established.Finally,the spatial load forecasting is realized by using the load transmission characteristics.The methods are proposed in this paper solve the problem of unbalanced development of cellular load,reflected the global transmission of the electric load.And the accuracy of spatial load forecasting results is improved.The examples are given to verify the validity and practicability.