Research And Application Of Load Forecasting Based On Distribution Networks Planning

Load forecasting is the basis of the distribution network planning. The accuracy of load forecasting results directly influences the timeliness and rationality of the distribution network planning. In terms of the distribution network planning,however, there are problems in the complexity of load forecasting and the differences of regional planning. So choosing the load forecasting methods that can meet the need of the planning area’s actual situation is particularly important.This paper presents several commonly used methods of load forecasting, provides a basis for choosing the load forecasting method of distribution network planning by analyzing the advantages and weaknesses along with the application ranges of each method.In the matter of spatial load forecasting, this paper analyzes the commonly used method of spatial load forecasting. We choose the classification and subarea prediction method as the main method of spatial load forecasting; further study the forecasting model of this method, the principle of classification and subarea, and the selection process of saturated load density index.Combined with analyzing the related issues of the planning application in the distribution network load forecasting, this paper makes a total prediction of this county from the power demand and electricity consumption demand. This paper makes a spatial load forecasting to the county town from the aspects of load spatial distribution and saturated load forecasting. Finally, on the basis of the county’s distribution network planning project, the load forecasting results are applied to the power balance of the county and 10 kV network planning of the old urban area.