Research On Saturated Load Analysis And Application Based On The Development Of Economy And Society

Electric power industry is an important basic industry of national economic development, electricity demand and economic and social development restrict each other and promote each other. There are some factor of electric power,such as economic development, industry structure, population, urban development, scientific and technological progress. Electric load growing is similar with economic and social development, at different stages of economic and social development presents different characteristics. When the social development to a certain stage, by the population, economy, resources and other constraints, power development also will appear in a saturation situation, electricity load growth slow or even stop, the overall electricity load remained relatively stable, said this time load reached saturation.At present, China’s economy has entered the industrialization in the late stage of development, making great efforts to adjust the economic structure, change the mode of economic development, and adhere to green low-carbon, sustainable development path. With economic development and continuous restructuring of the industrial structure, when the country completed industrialization entered the economically developed phase, electricity demand will shift from growth to moderate growth, even saturation. Therefore, to explore the laws of economic and social development and growth in electricity demand between summarizing technical of saturation load forecasting is important.it is significant to predicting the time point and saturation saturation of the region for the provincial grid load and even the overall economic and social development.From the perspective of economic and power relations, this paper study on the saturated load analysis technology and application of economic and social development, and aims to provide an effective method for load forecasting saturation. Firstly, the author study on the typical stages of economic development and the demand for electricity of china and some developed coutries, summed up the economic and social characteristics of the power saturation stage and standard of saturation determination; secondly, the author screened the economic and social development indicators applicable to the regional saturated load forecast, and predicted various indicator by logistic curve prediction method, also constructed the forecasting of rolling multidimensional city saturation load based on economic and social development indicators, and Huazhong as examples for analysis.Based on economic and social development of the saturated load analysis technology can accurate and comprehensive analysis of the impact of energy, economic and environmental factors such as demand for electricity, to provide an effective method for load forecasting saturation region.it is providing reasonable advice for electricity planning, and making important role on economic and the grid coordinated development.