Research On Multifactor Saturated Load Forecasting In Power System

With the continuous development of social economy,social power is also growing,and because of the change of economic development,there will be growth in liquid power changes,but in the social and economic development to a certain stage,will be affected by the factors of the city land planning,population quantity,the city's power growth will reach the maximum saturation of the city can afford.Therefore,when establishing the urban power grid,we first need to analyze the saturation of the city's electric power and avoid over planning.Therefore,the prediction of the power saturation can provide theoretical guidance for the planning and construction of the urban power grid.the growth rate of electric load will slow down or even stop growth,which will gradually enter into the saturated development stage of electric power load under the constraints of regional energy structure,land resources,population size and environmental pressure.The city is the key to determine the saturated load index of power grid development the ultimate size of the city power grid planning,provide the basic data for the long-term planning of power supply,power transmission and distribution networks,Then the accuracy of the model is verified,and the accuracy of the model is higher than that of the model.expansion project recently,to avoid unnecessary,for the future development of city power reserve space,ensure coordination the development of city planning and power grid.Therefore,the development of urban power saturation load forecasting will provide theoretical guidance for the planning and construction of urban distribution network.The present study involving city power system load forecasting research mainly for saturated single factor,while ignoring other factors affecting city power system saturation load growth,and many problems related to city power system load saturation should be further explored and improved.Therefore,this paper focuses on the research and application of the saturated load forecasting algorithm of urban power system,and carries out the research of power system multi factor saturation load prediction.The main work and conclusions are as follows:(1)the background and significance of research on power load are expounded.The research status and load forecasting methods of load forecasting at home and abroad are summarized,and the research status and application of saturated load prediction are summarized.(2)according to the theory of division of the industrialization stage proposed the load's development Logistic curve theory course based on phase division;set up on the basis of the calculation strategy model and Logistic curve of saturated load forecasting based on the typical C city as an example,load forecasting,this chapter illustrates the effectiveness of the established model and feasibility;(3)the influence factors of multi dimension saturation load forecasting based on multi dimension saturated load forecasting,established mathematical model for predicting logistic curve multiple binomial regression based on multi dimension saturated load,and load analysis of influencing factors of the city as an example,to build multi dimension saturated load forecasting model,it is proved that the model more suitable for the growth of S type with saturated load forecasting,prediction accuracy;(4)summarized and summarized the application of saturated load forecasting and the implementation of saturated load forecasting.Based on rough set and cellular automata algorithm,we planned the urban area as an example to carry out the research of spatial power saturation load prediction.The research results of this paper can provide key data guidance for the research of the planning and construction of urban power system.