Study On Development And Application Of Simulation System Of Urban Development Boundary Delimitation Based On Multiple Plannings Integration

With the further development of China's reform and opening up,some problems existing in urban and rural construction are becoming more and more obvious.The most prominent problem is the mutual contradiction among different plannings,which principally exists in urban construction land.This contradiction results in that land resources can't be used effectively,land resources waste and inefficient utilization are severe,even healthy and orderly social economic development will be hindered.It is the key point to solve this problem that studying urban development boundary defining under the background of "integrating different rules",which is of significant meaning for coordinated development of different rules.It also does good to optimizing allocation of land resources and sustainable social development.By taking Chengguan town,Chengguan township and San Yizhai township in Lankao county,Henan province as an example,this article analysis the characteristic of land use spatial evolution from two aspects: land use transition matrixes and the speed and trend of land use change.The study simulates the use pattern and space distribution of urban centers in 2020 by CA-Markov modeling on the basis of Predecessors' research results and the actual situation in the study area to choose driving factors.Then the article simulates the central city in 2020 by the model that is based on Cellular Automata and Multi-agent and tests its precision.In the research process,this study use Logistic regression model to determine the transformation rules of Cellular Automata model.Besides,the Multi-agent model consists three parts:resident agent,government agent and developers agent.The article sets four situations:mutually negotiation among the three kinds of agents;government-leading;consideration of urban planning;resident agent and developers agent guiding,and simulate the land use of central city in 2020 in different scenarios based on CA-ABM model,and evaluate the results at different angles.In order to choose the optimal solution and provide a reference for the decision makers.From this study we have drawn the following conclusions:(1)The scales of urban centers have become larger and larger in a state of growth.The transformation of it appears serious unbalanced with only roll in but no roll out from 2009 to 2013.The added urban centers land is mainly transferred from cultivated land.(2)The land use pattern in 2020 simulated by CA-Markov model suggests that change of land use pattern from 2013 to 2020 has kept the change trend of pattern changes from 2009 to 2013.The cultivated land has decreased,and the area of central city has increased heavily,while the areas of other land use types have a little decrease.However,the simulated central city area is obviously bigger than planning area,and planning index control can't be achieved in the process of simulation.(3)CA-ABM model can well simulate the dynamic change of city center expansion.It is better than CA-Markov model in the accuracy of simulation results,spatial pattern and scale control.It has higher reliability and is benefit to the preservation of cultivated land,especially high quality cultivated land.It is also beneficial to sustainable land use.(4)Expansion mode of central city under the influence of the three kinds of agents is edge type and filling type based on original urban form.In this case,the degree of intensive land use of urban centers is relatively high,and there are little situations to occupy high quality cultivated land in the process of expansion.Central city expansion dominated by government barely takes a high level of cultivated land;moreover,its space shape is more complicated and it is decentralized and leaping for urban expansion.Urban morphology simulated by combine situation 1 with urban planning is relatively compact and protect the high quality cultivated land at the same time.Besides,the form of city centers dominated by resident intelligent agent and developers' intelligent agent is more compact.(5)Contrast the simulation results of four situations and urban centers' scale line in urban planning.The consistencies of four scenarios are 85.01%,81.30%,88.78%,84.94% respectively.(6)From the perspective of protecting ecological land,the area of ecological land occupied is arranged from lest to the most is scenario 1,scenario 3,scenario 4,scenario 2.From the perspective of protecting cultivated land,the rank for high quality cultivated land occupied is scenario 2,scenario 1,scenario 3,scenario 4.As for the perspective of urban planning,the goodness of fit to urban planning is arranged from high to low: scenario 3,scenario 1,scenario 4,scenario 2.