Research On The Peak Of Carbon Emission In Henan Province Based On System Dynamics

At present,global warming has become a common concern of the international political circles,and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been set up to deal with problems caused by greenhouse gases.Carbon dioxide（CO₂）is the main component of greenhouse gases,accounting for about 80%.China issued a joint statement on climate change which made a goal commitment to control greenhouse gas emissions.It is necessary to take the response to climate change as a major national strategy of national economic and social development planning,keep steady progress in carbon trading,and put forward new requirements for the implementation of carbon reduction measures and carbon emission reduction in the process of economic and social development in Henan Province.Henan province is a big province with large population of food and agricultural production,and the energy consumption intensity is higher than the national average.Thus,the research on the forecast of Henan Province carbon emissions has important significance in the steady development of economy and society in Henan province.The whole Henan Province carbon emissions are divided into several areas to establish the model of carbon emissions,so as to determine the main areas of carbon emission intensity and control measures for Henan province to better provide a theoretical basis for participating in the national carbon emissions trading.Based on the theory of system dynamics and Vensim software,this paper divides the whole society carbon emission in Henan province into four fields:industrial,commercial and civilian,transportation and land use change and forestry（LUCF）.By reading a number of literature from domestic and foreign and collecting data,this paper analyzed the current situation of economic and social,the status of energy consumption and rough carbon emissions in Henan Province.On the basis of this,the carbon emission factors such as fossil energy,electricity and living wood consumption in the fields of IPCC greenhouse gas inventory compilation and so on were used to establish the industrial,commercial and civilian,transportation,LUCF carbon emissions subsystem,the delineation of the system boundary,combined with the actual population into the population in Henan Province,the economic level,energy consumption,live stock volume and other data indicators,enter the variable equation,run Vensim to obtain the forecast of carbon emissions in various fields Value and trend,analysis and pooled into the whole society carbon emissions.Furthermore,in the model,the carbon emission in 2030 is considered to be 60-65%lower than that in 2005,and a strong constraint scenario and control model parameter values are compared and analyzed.It is found that in the strong constraint scenario,Henan Province can reach around 2030 Carbon emission peak.Finally,according to the results of carbon emission forecast in Henan Province,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the energy efficiency,develop clean energy,adjust the industrial structure,focus on energy saving and actively utilize the market mechanism to achieve the effect of CO₂ emission reduction.