System Analysis And Regulation Of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions Of Hunan Province

In the21st century, the global human beenings all faced a series of catastrophic problems such as energy exhausted gradually, environment destroyed and polluted seriously and climate changed. Especially, the more increased carbon emissions due to energy consumption had been became an important restriction factor for the world achieving sustainable development objective. Currently, the energy consumption carbon emissions problem was not only a science matter, but also a practical problem that ran through political, economic and social fields. In this context, it had been become an important research field and focus for geography, environmental science, economics and other subjects. Administrative unit was an important region for our country achieving energy conservation and emissions reduction target. It was of great significance for "two-oriented society" construction, energy conservation and emissions reduction target of Hunan Province in the new period to launch system analysis and regulation research for energy carbon emissions.Based on the actual Hunan Province and geography, economics, environmental science and other scientific theory, this paper followed the approach of " theory research-empirical research-countermeasure research", combed some theoretical basis for supporting energy consumption carbon emissions system analysis and regulation research, discussed the dynamic evolution mechanism, regulation mechanism and framework of energy consumption carbon emissions, calculated the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, represented its spatial-temporal difference of energy consumption carbon emissions and carbon footprints of Hunan Province, studied the driving force of energy consumption carbon emission of Hunan Province, analysised the coordinate relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth of Hunan Province, measured the safety early-warning index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, put forward the regulation emphasis, partition regulation strategies and countermeasures of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province.(1) This paper reviewed related scientific concept, theoretical foundation, dynamic devolution mechanism, regulation mechanism, regulation framework and process of energy consumption carbon emissions. System Science Theory, Sustainable Development Theory, Ecological Footprints Theory, Decoupling Theory, Environment Kuznets Theory, Early-warning Theory were constituted the theory system for supporting energy consumption system analysis and regulation research. The regulation mechanism of energy consumption carbon emissions included policy guidance mechanism, law (including planning) constraint mechanism, market regulating mechanism and technical support mechanism. It was a dynamic process for energy consumption carbon emissions regulating. The regulation framework mainly included regulation subject and controlled object, the input and output, the regulated target and regulated behaviors, the information and its transmission and feedback, regulation policies and measures.(2) The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province were measured. Meantime, this paper researched spatial-temporal pattern of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province presented a situation that increasing year by year. It raised from2171.35million t in2000to8208.88million t in2011. The total energy consumption carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, the carbon emissions intensity and per land carbon emissions all showed a larger spatial difference. From the view of energy consumption carbon emissions efficiency, Zhangjiajie, Xiangxi, Changsha, Changde, Zhuzhou, Yueyang and Xiangtan belonged to the high value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Yiyang, Chenzhou, Loudi, Yongzhou and Hengyang belonged to the middle value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Shaoyang and Huaihua belonged to the low value region of carbon emissions efficiency.(3) Based on the Grey Correlation method, Correlation Coefficient method, LMDI model and STIRPAT model, this paper studied the energy consumption carbon emissions driving force of Hunan Province. The economic output effect was the largest contribution to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was27698.40. The economic development was the leading factor to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The population size also had a great influence on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was1573.34. The cumulative effect of the industrial structure was5328.18, and it was also the main factor for energy carbon emissions growth of Hunan Province. In most years, the energy structure effect was positive, and its cumulative contribution rate was991.71. The energy intensity effect was-418.64, and it had no significant impact on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the population size was4.96. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the urbanization rate was1.07. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and per capita GDP was0.32. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and third industrial structure was-0.69. According to driving direction, the driving factor of energy consumption carbon emissions can be divided into positive reinforcement factors, the negative weakening factors and two-way pulled factors.(4) This paper analysised the coordination relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth. The two had a long-term cointegration relationship, and it was a one-way granger asual relationship that from economic growth to energy consumption carbon emissions. Since1995, the relative decoupling situation was occurred between the two in most years. There was a bigger spatial difference of decoupling situation in Hunan Province. It had inverted U shape curve between the energy consumption carbon emission and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. It also had inverted U shape curve between the per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. Since1995, the antagonism was existed between energy consumption carbon emissions and the economic growth of Hunan Province. The degree of coupling was generally experienced a " rise-decent-rise-decent" change trend. The comprehensive index generally presented increasing trend.(5) This paper builded the energy consumption carbon emissions security early-warning index system, and evaluated the safety alert of Hunan Province from time and spatial two dimensions. The security alert of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province was forecasted. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety generally presented a trend that "critical state-unsafe-critical state-below safe state" and "middle alert-heavy alert-middle alert-light alert". It also presented a larger spatial difference for energy consumption carbon emissions safety. The spatial difference was the lower security alert in Central and Northern Hunan and the higher security alert in Hunan other regions. Changsha, Yongzhou, Xiangxi, Changde, Shaoyang, Huaihua, Xiangtan, Zhangjiajie, Yueyang and Zhuzhou belonged to the middle alert degree; Hengyang, Yiyang, Chenzhou and Loudi belonged to the heavy alert degree. The safety index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province increased by0.6267in2012to0.6833in2016. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety index was gradually increased, but the corresponding warning degree was still light alert. According the weight of each index, the non-fossil energy consumption proportion, urbanization, R&D investment proportion in GDP, coal consumption proportion, per capita carbon emission and the other indicators was diagnosed as the key obstacle factors for restricting the energy consumption carbon emission safety of Hunan Province. The control simulation was launched by setting seven scenarios for energy consumption carbon emissions safety of Hunan Province using2011for base year. The seventh scenario that controlled all13main obstacle factors in pressure system, state system and response system was the best scenario. The sensitive rate of seventh scenario was13.51%. It was the highest scenario in all7scenarios.(6) This paper analysised the regulation points, regional regulation strategy and regulation countermeasures. From the decision-making scale, the key five fields of energy consumption carbon emissions regulation of Hunan Province mainly were industrial, energy, living, urban and technology field. From the space scale, Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration should be taken technological innovation leading control strategy; Dongting Lade Ecology Regions should be taken clean production leading control strategy; the Large Southern Hunan Province should be taken industry transformation control strategy; the Western Hunan Province should be taken forestry carbon sink leading control strategy.