Research On The Air Pollution Control Program Of Sichuan Province Based On Scenario Analysis And Multiple Criteria Decision Making

In recent years,air pollution has become one of the most serious environmental pollution that have attracted the attention from governments at all levels.Chinese various provinces and cities have developed air pollution control programs or action plans.The quality of air pollution control program affects the prevention and management of air pollution directly.It is important to make a research on the air pollution control program,to provide reference suggestion for improving air quality.The current academic research on air pollution is focused on various monitoring,forecasting systems,causes and hazards,while it lacks of the research on the air pollution control program design and quality evaluation,the research on the air quality quantitative evaluation and comparison with the MCDM method,the research on the disaster scenario construction and logical analysis of air pollution process with the situational analysis method,the analysis on the emergency response to air pollution.It is difficult to clearly and completely describe the cooperative relationship among the objects and the influencing factors in the emergency management of air pollution.In order to make up for the shortcomings of the current research and to explore ways to improve the quality of air pollution control programs,this paper made a research on the air pollution control program of 9 municipal governments in Sichuan Province with various methods.First,the scenario analysis method was used to analyze the formation scenarios,disaster scenarios,prevention scenarios and response scenarios of air pollution.Second,the evaluation system of air pollution control program was established.Third,new weighting methods were explored.Forth,Various of measures to improve the quality of air pollution control programs were explored.The research in this paper is innovative in the following aspects:First,the scenario analysis method was used for the first time to analyze the formation scenarios,disaster scenarios,prevention scenarios and response scenarios of air pollution.Based on the result of the scenario analysis,the evaluation system of air pollution control program was established for the first time.Second,methods optimization.The Simos procedure was simplified,together with DEMATEL,to form a new method weighting in the two aspects of the subjective factors and the objective relationship between the indicators.The operation process of PROMETHEE II was integrated into a formula,which simplified the process and improved the efficiency of computation,to form a new rapid evaluation method.Third,according to the analysis results of multi attribute decision making method,in order to improve the overall quality of air pollution control program in Sichuan Province,4 improvement directions were put forward.