Planning Model And Empirical Research In Tackling Climate Change Of Shanghai

Since the 21 st century,with the post-industrial development,energy security and global warming caused by the process of human life and production arosed widespread concern in the international community.Climate change has become a huge challenge human facing during a longer period in the future in the world.With high population density,high construction intensity,frequent economic activities,cities have become the area of human activity and the main depart of economy.Cities consumes most of the planet's resources,but also discharges more than three quarters of the world's emissions of greenhouse gases,affected by climate change,especially in extreme temperatures,storms,rising sea levels and other effects of urban water logging,human health and infrastructure.OECD / IEA forecasted: By 2030,American cities will consume 87% of the country's energy,Europe,Australia and New Zealand will reach 75%,78% and 80%,energy consumption resulted in increasing greenhouse gas emissions,thereby causing global warming,and growing urban vulnerability.Cities to address climate change has become particularly urgent and realistic issue.Under the background of international low-carbon cities and urbanization construction of China,the world's governments and relevant organizations have made unremitting efforts to explore strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Such as Stockholm,Tokyo,Vancouver,Canada,the Netherlands,Rotterdam,Paris,Los Angeles,Chicago,Miami and other cities combined climate change with the risks the region faced,then respond to climate change into urban planning work,developed a detailed climate change plans or action plans which provided a useful reference for other cities worldwide to address climate change.By studying on climate challenges cities facing,the main contents of planning,development of key steps and actions the world's typical estuary cities of New York City,San Francisco,London,then on this basis,proposed urban planning models to address climate change.Through the case study of Shanghai in China,analyzed and summarized fact of climate change during the past 50 years,and on this basis,structured a comprehensive climate change vulnerability index system,then used the overlay method in GIS to achieve the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of Shanghai.At the sametime,based on Shanghai Statistical Yearbook and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during2001-2013,analyzed the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during 2000-2011 in Shanghai,and utilized scenario analysis to discuss the trends of CO2 emission of terminal energy consumption under the baseline scenario,policy scenario and the target scenario in Shanghai in 2020.Research for the fact that earlier,putting forward comprehensive strategies from mitigation and adaptation two aspects to address climate change in Shanghai.At last,based on the results of this study,presented the questiones in creation and further study in the future.Hoping to provide some reference for taking actions to address climate change in Shanghai and other cities in China.The following main conclusions of the paper:1)In this paper,by comparing the planning practices of tackling climate change at home and abroad,we found that quantitative analysis and quantitative targets are the main means which wide range,the method technology is relatively mature abroad.Well,domestic research on climate change forcused on a qualitative description and the main coping strategies analysis,lacking of mature theory and method system of climate change action plan and urban climate change scenarios,risks and potential impacts identified vulnerability assessments;2)In this paper,by studying on climate change urban planning practice of the typical estuary,put forward the urban planning model to response to climate change,which namely the main contents: climate change assessment,greenhouse gas emissions research,comprehensive strategy of addressing climate change,monitoring and evaluation.Main methods: climate statistical analysis,scenarios analysis,index system,the method of GIS spatial analysis.3)Based on the meteorological data of Shanghai and the analysis of the domestic scholars research,conclusion as followed: annual average temperature of Shanghai annual precipitation change in general during 1961-2013 were on the rise.Urban heat island,rain island effect were obvious.High temperature and heavy rain and other extreme weathers showed basic consistent trends,which presented the linear growth.High temperature and heavy rain presented increasing or decreasing distribution characteristics from coastal to inland on space.Which center of the city for peak,suburb is relatively low.4)Through superposed the climate change exposure,sensitivity and adaptive layers of Shanghai,realized climate change vulnerability evaluation map.The low vulnerability orlower vulnerability areas mainly included the Qingpu,Jinshan.Fengxian,Putuo districts and the Midwest of Pudong.Areas of high or higher climate change vulnerability are Chongming County,Baoshan,Jiading districts,the southeast coast of Pudong districts,and Huangpu River.5)Based on the analysis of energy consumption data from 2000 to 2012,energy consumption in the terminal in Shanghai showed a trend of slow growth in recent years.Industrial carbon emissions still accounts for the largest proportion,in varieties of energy consumption coalis still accounted a certain proportion.Under different scenarios carbon emissions of energy consumption in future in Shanghai will still keep growing.6)According to current climate change facts and carbon analysis of Shanghai,this article puts forward energy conservation works on industrial system,energy use and consumption from the perspective of climate change mitigation.Well from the side of climate change adaption,based on the climate change vulnerability evaluation and land use planning of Shanghai,proposed targeting measures and suggestions of the risk mitigation of the central area,the industrial structure optimization of the western area,the area of eco-development response of suburban agriculture and forestry,urban development regulation zone of Pudong,ecological conservation area of coastal and water to addressing climate change in Shanghai.