Research On Spatial-temporal Pattern Of The Social Vulnerability To Natural Disaster In Shanghai Under The Background Of Climate Change

Climate change is deeply affected by the natural environment and human social systems.Shanghai,located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta,which is an important economic and industrial center with an extremely heavy human-induced impacts,which also suffering the most vulnerable ecological system and sensitive and fragile social and economic system.Vulnerability,as a link between hazards factor and exposure,which attracted growing attention from disaster risk research and management due to the loss of socio-economic system under the influence of the hazard factors.Therefore,the study of the impact of natural disasters on the socio-economic system and the identification of vulnerability factors are important prerequisites for managers to formulate targeted disaster reduction strategies and improve their adaptability and recovery capabilities to cope with the adverse effects of natural disasters.This study takes Shanghai as the research area,based on the comprehensive assessment model of regional social vulnerability,analyze the development status of Shanghai from the social system itself,construct the Shanghai social vulnerability assessment index system,and dynamically analyze the future evolution trend and spatial variation law of social vulnerability of each district and county in Shanghai from the perspective of time and space.It provides a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and reduction.The main findings are as follows:(1)Based on summarizing the concepts,research methods and theoretical models of vulnerability,this paper proposes an understanding of social vulnerability: mainly refers to the exposure,sensitivity,adaptation and resilience of humans and complex social and economic systems in face of the disasters or adverse events.(2)A comprehensive assessment model for the social vulnerability of natural disasters in Shanghai was constructed.Based on the HOP model,the SoVI indicator evaluation model analyzes the social vulnerability of natural disasters in terms of population,economy,social structure and social culture.(3)A index-based Shanghai social disaster vulnerability assessment index system and a quantitative assessment method were established.On the basis of the regional social vulnerability assessment model,10 indexes affecting social vulnerability were identified,and principal component analysis was used to determine the weights through SPSS factor analysis,quantify the vulnerability indicators(VI),and calculate the social vulnerability of all districts and counties.(4)The comprehensive vulnerability of natural disasters in Shanghai shows that the central urban area as a whole has increased and the suburbs have been relatively declining.In terms of space,it shows obvious regional differences,and the overall vulnerability has a downward trend,but with the increasing high vulnerability areas.The overall social vulnerability of the downtown area is relatively higher than that of the suburbs.This fully proves the differences in Shanghai's regional development and also reveals the characteristics of Shanghai's social vulnerability changes in its spatial distribution.(5)Shanghai proposed disaster reduction strategies and resilience measures to deal with the social vulnerability of natural disasters.Based on the status quo and evolutionary trends of the current social vulnerabilities of natural disasters in Shanghai,the key points for disaster prevention in the city are preliminarily deployed to enhance the protection capabilities of disaster prevention and reduction facilities.