Climate Change Vulnerability On Agriculture In Poor Areas

It assesses climate change vulnerability of typical poverty-stricken counties in China.By definition ofclimate change vulnerability from IPCC, through consulting literature and field investigation, the articleevaluates and analyzes climate change vulnerability in the history and future of typical poverty-strickencounties with the method of expert evaluation, DSSAT model, PRECIS model and the data ofmeteorological observation, crop yield, socioeconomic data. It aims to figure out the link betweenclimate change and poverty so as to provide scientific basis for targeted climate change adaptation inpoverty-stricken counties.Some conclusions are drawn：In the national and provincial level, there is a close link between the impoverishment rate and highdependence on agriculture, less per capita arable land. The change of physical factors become moreimportant than it of agricultural infrastructure like rural power consumption, which shows the necessityof targeted climate change adaptation in typical poverty-stricken counties in China.The temperature of Yuanzhou county of Ningxia province is obviously increasing in2020s（2011-2040）under A2, B2climate situations. As for the yield of wheat there, improving irrigation is the main climatechange adaptation for decreasing fluctuation of agricultural products. The vulnerability of Yuanzhoucounty is high in the past and it in the future will still stay in the threshold of "Very Vulnerable".The temperature of Tiandeng county of Guangxi province is obviously increasing in2020s（2011-2040）under A2, B2climate situations. At the same time, the annual rainfall is dramaticlly decreasing andexists obvious fluctuation. Irrigation is significant for Tiandeng county to ensure stable yield in thefuture. In2020s（2011-2040）under A2, B2climate situations, despite of the same sensitivity, thevulnerability of Tiandeng county will still stay in the threshold of "Serious Vulnerable".The temperature of Min county of Gansui province is obviously increasing in2020s（2011-2040）underboth A2and B2climate situations. The annual rainfall there is not pronounced. For the yield of wheat,irrigation becomes significant for Min county to ensure stable yield in the future. In2020s（2011-2040）under A2, B2climate situations, the sensitivity decreases slightly, but the vulnerability of Min countywill still stay in the threshold of "Serious Vulnerable".