A Comprehensive Assessment On Provincial Vulnerability To Climate Change And Countermeasures Research

The climate change characterized by global warming which its adverse effects on China and the world are becoming increasingly prominent.Vulnerability,as an important tool to study the degree of adverse effects of climate change,has drawn a great deal of attention from domestic and foreign scholars.Based on the review of related literatures at home and abroad,this paper combs the conceptual system of vulnerability,evaluation theory and the research methods.Then taking the 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in Mainland China as the research objects,this paper established a climate change vulnerability assessment model and index system under the guidance of the exposure-sensitivity-resilience theory.And applied GIS Technology to map the level of climate change vulnerability in Mainland China,the paper analyzed the exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity of Mainland China in the face of climate change.Then it analyzed the vulnerability of the climate change in Mainland China and conducted a comprehensive evaluation.The results show that,except for a few regions(Beijing,Zhejiang and Guangdong)are in a potentially fragile state,almost all regions of the country are vulnerable,and most of the provinces in fragile areas are at a moderate and above fragile state.Among them,Ningxia,Hainan,Guizhou and Gansu are highly vulnerable areas and are most affected by climate change.the mild and below vulnerable regions belong to the eastern area;In the moderate and below vulnerable regions,only the central Shanxi,Jiangxi and western Chongqing are into mild fragile areas,other western,central and northeast regions are all in the higher level of vulnerability or above.According to its composition and the analysis of the vulnerability level distribution,we can see that the score of the single factor cannot determine the ultimate fragility of the region.The main factors that affect the fragility of the same vulnerability level are not necessarily the same.In the same economic area,and their vulnerability levels are not necessarily the same or even different greatly;and the adaptive capacity map of climate change in Mainland China has the highest match with the vulnerability map.At last,for the moderate and above vulnerable areas,combined with the analysis of the indicators measured by the various elements of vulnerability,we put forward specific countermeasures for the fragility of each area,so as to pointed out the direction of efforts to reduce the vulnerability of the area.