Drought Characteristics And Early Warning Model In Guizhou Province

Drought is one of the major natural disasters which can affect Chinese economy and social development.In recent years,with the rapid development of economy and society,the drought is becoming more and more serious,and it is a serious threat to the survival of the human environment.Guizhou province has a large population,less arable land resources,water resources in time and space distribution uneven,frequent disasters of flood and drought,drought disasters occur frequently in history.Based on the “drought formation mechanism and the management information system under changing environment”,the characteristics of drought and early warning model of Guizhou province were studied,to provide technical support and scientific basis for Guizhou drought management system,so as to take early measures of drought emergency to minimize drought damage.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Select the 19 stations in Guizhou province from 1953 to 2012 nearly 60 years of data,based on the precipitation anomaly percentage Pa,standardization precipitation index SPI and comprehensive meteorological drought index CI,from the two aspects of the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought and drought characteristics in Guizhou province were analyzed,and three kinds of drought index in Guizhou province under the drought condition were compared.Finally draw the conclusion that the comprehensive meteorological drought index CI can accurately describe the drought conditions in Guizhou province.(2)On the basis of collecting the data,combined with the local characteristics of Guizhou province,established a set of suitable drought early warning index system for Guizhou,and expounds and summarizes the principle and scope of the indicators.Based on the analysis and summary in theory and research methods at home and abroad on drought early warning,supporting technology and methods for modeling.According to the Guizhou area to set its own characteristics,analysis of the multi set pair analysis fuzzy evaluation model,and use AHP to determine the weight of each index.The drought early warning evaluations were expressed by the signal lamp method vividly.Apply the model to Xiuwen County,Xingren County,Meitan County,Nayong County,Rongjiang County,Yinjiang County in August 2013 for evaluation and early warning,use the model to derive the warning and the actual drought conditions consistent,the early warning model is a practical and effective feasible method of early warning.(3)According to the drought analysis results,combined with the release of early warning information,to develop a set of effective measures for drought and drought mitigation scheme,and provides a basis for drought in Guizhou area row police measures.Guizhou province's water resources development and utilization is a system engineering,so to exclude drought warning,realize the sustainable utilization of resources in Guizhou province must be establish firmly the scientific outlook on development,strengthen the construction of water conservancy facilities,improve the drought mitigation benefits and realize the integrated management of water resources.