Evaluation Of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity For Chang Chun

In recent years, the international metropolis and economically developed city groups have appeared gradually, and then they speed up the process of worldwide urbanization.As a populous developing country,itresulted in a series of urban disease in the process of rapid urban economic development, the limited supply of resources and people’s growing demand are also conflict constantly, all kinds of harsh realities have restrict the sustainable development of the cityseriously, whichgive a wake-up call to humanityundoubtedly. Changchun City, as a member of the northeast old industrial base, if it has a good economic development and ecological environment construction,then the development of its surrounding cities have a radiation effect,therefore, improve the city’s spatial planning system and the comprehensive capacity of urban become verycritical and particularly urgent.Based on urban economic theory, short plate theory and the theory of sustainable development, taking Changchun City for example and analyzed the status quo of Changchun from the perspective of four carryings,we selectthree categories of indicators ultimately by looking through the relevant literature, they are pressure type,pressure-bearing type and potential type. Then we establish the city’s comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation index system. Combined with the specific circumstances, we collect the 2002- 2014 data from relevant Statistical Yearbook, using range method to standardize the various data processing, and the entropy value principle of empowerment for 31 indicators. Based on the state space model, we measure the comprehensive capacity of Changchun City. Studies have shown that during the year of 2005 – 2007 the city’s comprehensive carrying presented the most optimistic situation in the three years, the estimates of STR value is more than one; while, the estimates of STR value in the rest years are less than 1, which showing a lack of coordination between the different modules of development.To better understand the reasons for the change, the paper takes each axis measurement results as a breakthrough into comprehensive discussion. Studies have shown that the three limiting factors are: the total amount of waste emissions and population, environment and per capita resources, social support and rational model of economic development; At the same time, we found that the variables of CCSY and CCS restrict each otherseriously.Then we select the gray forecast model to predict the situation for the next five years.Finally, from four aspects of economic, social, environmental and resources we put forward theinterrelated policy recommendations to enhance the city’s comprehensive carrying capacity,which will provide direction for achieving sustainable development in Changchun City.