Statistical Research On Carbon Intensity Differences Of Regional Construction Industry

Construction industry is the basic and guiding industry, which promotes the development of various industries in our country, however, its high energy consumption and high carbon emission characters have become the shackle to impede the healthy development. Under the background of current carbon emission, the division of responsibility will be eventually implemented into the industrial and regional level, moreover, as an important source of carbon emission, the emphasis of current study will be focused on the plan which means to reduce the carbon emission on construction industry. Therefore, master the rules of regional and temporal differences of carbon intensity, is of great significant both on theory and practice which develops and implements action plans of carbon emission reduction.In view of this, the paper focused on the issues of the imperfect accounting framework, the lack of research on space-time differences, the relatively single influencing factors and the decomposition factors not combined with construction industry characteristics. And the research is carried out based on low carbon economy theory, spatial correlation theory, convergence theory and index LMDI decomposition theory. Firstly, it defines the connotation of regional construction carbon intensity, determines the carbon dioxide accounting framework from three aspects, fossil fuel, electric power and building materials and improves the accounting methods of carbon intensity by considering the regional electric power transmission and distribution differences and construction materials recycling factors. Secondly, it utilizes Arc GIS, Geoda geostatistical softwares and Eviews econometric software, selects provincial panel data from 2004 to 2013 to make measurement and comparison of the construction characteristics of carbon intensity differences, respectively from the characteristics of spatial pattern distribution and development trends in the timeline features. Finally, it constructs regional construction carbon intensity LMDI index decomposition model, and decomposes the value of carbon intensity as three categories, structure effect, intensity effect and carbon emission coefficient effect, totally 11 driving factors. And then, it parses the positive and negative key driving factors and contribution rates of carbon intensity in different areas and phases, analyzes its trajectory, and explores the key caused character differences to construction industry carbon emissions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Spatial pattern distribution characters. ①During the period of observation, national construction industry plays a significant role in global and local spatial autocorrelation characteristics, thereinto, these two characteristics are significantly exist on building materials and electricity carbon intensity, however, fossil fuel emissions intensity only possesses positive local spatial autocorrelation characteristic. ②The provincial construction industry average carbon intensity can be divided into three quadrants, H-H, L-H and L-L, by the method of Moran scatter plot, and then defines the carbon concentration areas of construction industry.(2)Regional convergence characteristics. ①From national perspective, the provincial construction carbon intensity gap cannot automatically eliminated, and it will be increased during three continuous phases, 2004-2007, 2007-2010 and 2010-2013, however, when assuming that if 30 provinces have the same external conditions, the national carbon intensity of construction industry will tend to the same steady state level; Meanwhile, the relative change is a stationary process, it will automatically tends to its compensation difference equilibrium level. ②From the perspective of carbon concentration areas, each area possesses the character of absolute convergence; However, only L-L concentrated area’s decomposition gap narrows continuously; Besides, the relative change of each area is a stationary process. ③From the perspective of the eight comprehensive economic zones, only the middle Yangtze river region and the great southwest zones possess the character of absolute convergence; and together with southern coastal area the relative changes are determined smooth process; However, each zone’s decomposition gap narrows continuously, thereinto, the decomposition of carbon intensity gap are increased among northern coast, east coast, southern coast and southwest region; the gap of northeast region and the middle Yangtze river region increased at first and then decreased; however, the gap of the middle Yellow river region and the great northwest zone increased at first and then decreased.(3)The characteristic differences of driving factors. ①Labor productivity, construction intensity and population density are the key driving factors of the continuous phases, thereinto, the former two factors are positive and the last one is negative. ②Construction intensity, vocation demand level and energy consumption intensity are the key positive factors of H-H concentrated area; Labor productivity is the key positive factors of L-H and L-L concentrated area; population density is the negative key driving factor of each carbon concentration areas. ③Population density is the negative driving factor of each zone at any phases, however, the increase or decrease, the positive or negative changes of the other driving factors, furtherly caused the changes of carbon intensity values at different zones or different phases.