The Impact Of Carbon Tariff On Export Of Guangdong Province

Guangdong province, as the first batch of low-carbon pioneer nominated by theNational Development and Reform Commission in2010, will take proactive actionsin developing low-carbon technologies and replace the high-polluting, high-energyconsuming industries with green energy in order to accelerate its transition movementand to cope with the new situation in which American Clean Energy and Security Act willbe put into effect in2020.Based on surveying the carbon emissions and the embodied carbon of trade inGuangdong Province, the article uses the emissions coefficient to estimate the totalcarbon emissions and emissions intensity from2000to2011and recovers that carbonemissions of the province quickly increased in2007-2011while its emissionsintensity steadily lowered. Taking the input-output analysis as the tool the articlecalculates carbon emissions in Guangdong’s18industries to produce exportablegoods. It is shown that those industries exporting larger or smaller portion of theiroutput were universally characterized as high-emission and they took a relativelylarger share of the total export of the province. Combined with designated carbontariff policy it is discussed that Guangdong’s export sector may suffer severe loss ifcarbon tariff takes into effect. This impact might be even more substantial than thatderived from anti-dumping or special safe-guard mechanism. The article uses KayaEquation and LMDI Decomposition Method to estimate the contribution inGuangdong’s carbon emissions respectively from perspectives of energy structureeffect, energy efficiency effect, economic scale effect and population scale effect.Finally, the relevant policy suggestions have been provided based on theoretical andempirical study of this article from three aspects.