Research On The Complex System Of E-commerce Based On System Dynamics

With the arrival of the era of global economic integration, china’s e-commerce is gradually changing the way of economic development of the country, the circulation of goods and people’s consumption patterns. Under the complex and dynamic external environment, how to put forward effective management strategies for the sustainable development of electronic commerce has become one of the hottest topics in the field of business, academia and even in the country. Using system thinking and the method of system dynamics, based on the theory of system science and complex system, E-commerce is considered as a complex system, the connotation, characteristics, operation rules and management strategies of it are studied.Firstly, the operation model of the complex system is constructed, and the elements, subsystems, structure, function and external environment of the E-commerce system are analyzed. From the component, structure, boundary, behavior and environment of the Ecommerce system, the complexity of the E-commerce system is explained. The complex system is divided into three level subsystems which are including transaction subsystem, service subsystem and control subsystem and seven secondary subsystem which are including suppliers, customers, network platform, authentication management, payment center, logistics center and the government. The external environment(including industry, economy, policy, humanities, science and technology, finance, credit, etc.), purposes, structures, functions are analyzed. Secondly, based on the operation model of the complex system of E-commerce, by defining the boundaries of the system, and each factors(variables) of subsystem are analyzed, by means of system dynamics theory and methods, the causal diagram for the complex system of E-commerce is constructed, and the nine feedback loop causes of its causality diagram are analyzed. Thirdly, in order to promote the sustainable development of e-commerce, the relations between factors, susbsystems and systems are analyzed. The SD flow-chart of e-commerce complex system is established by using Vensim, and its validity and feasibility are simulated and analyzed. Lastly, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on the 7 subsystems and arrive a conclusion that there are following factors closely related to the development of e-commerce: the numbers and purchases of consumers, the technical and development level of shopping platform, the index of information leakage, the advantage of logistics cost, the support and supervision of the government. Based on the conclusion, we propose effective strategies from the view of the complex e-commerce system’ self-organization and adaptivity to optimize the system.The research results of this paper will provide a theoretical basis for the development of the complex system of e-commerce, at the same time, it has important practical significance to the implementation of the management strategy.