System Dynamics Model And Empirical Study Of Science And Technology Program In Hebei Province

In recent decades, science and technology program is one of the important policy tool of the government, and the intensity of input is being increased.Local government S&T program embodies the will of local governments and the strategic objectives, key tasks of local economic.Local government S&T program is an important means of the macro-control. Local government S&T management department is one of an important local government department, and their performance evaluations become a matter of course in local government performance assessment, so the local government S&T program evaluations become more urgent.Local government S&T program related to science and technology, economy, education and social infrastructure.In the past ,a number of evaluation methods should not be an objective, truthful and accurate reflection of the actual targets of different evaluation, so S&T evaluation findings led to a lack of authenticity, and can not fully reflect the performance of S&T science work.Therefore, the study of a new S&T program evaluation methods become imminent.In view of the local government S&T program involved many factors and confused relationships, this paper introduces the scientific method and system perspective.We placed the S&T program in the Regional Innovation System ,and made use of the method of System Dynamics to study S&T program on the regional economic impact.First, this paper analysizes the operation of S&T program , and makes the hypothetical behaviors of the S&T program; Secondly, the causal link and structure model of Regional Innovation System under the local government S&T program are constructed; Finally, we make the empirical study on the basis of Hebei Province tenth S&T five-year program.In this paper, empirical analysis is based on the data of 2001-2005 Hebei Province Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology, Statistical Yearbook on economic, and the implementation of tenth S&T five-year program.With the help of the software Vesim , the paper analysizes the conditions of the Regional Innovation System under the S&T program in Hebei Province and trends of economic development, and predicts the behaviors of the Regional Innovation System under the S&T program in Hebei Province.At last, the paper combines the fact of Hebei province and puts forward some suggestions on policy.