Research On The Development Of E-commerce Based On System Dynamics

The advent of the information technology revolution has not only affected people's daily life style,but also changed the mode of operation of commercial activities.In the 21 st century,with the acceleration of informatization process,especially the rapid development and popularization of Internet technology,e-commerce is rapidly emerging and booming throughout the world.Nowadays,as an important way of network consumption and information consumption,e-commerce has become an important pillar industry for expanding consumer demand and stabilizing economic growth.However,facing with the complex and ever-changing economic environment,how to achieve the sustained development of e-commerce and how to better promote the promotion of e-commerce on economic development? This is the theme of this article.Because of its strong penetration and high degree of openness,E-commerce has decided that it has a complex economic system.The relationship of Multiple feedback and mutual causal which can not be described by traditional thinking.Therefore,this article will combine the theory of system dynamics,use the thinking of dynamic and feedback,analyze how e-commerce to promote economic development,and based on this to draw up the development strategies.First of all,this article divides the social economy system into three parts: production,circulation and consumption to analyze the motivation mechanism of ecommerce for economic development.At the same time,we use the thinking of dynamic and feedback to analyze how economic growth promotes the development of e-commerce.Secondly,construct e-commerce system dynamics model to determine the network retail e-commerce and related industries as the system boundary.The system is divided into four subsystems: information technology,financial payment,logistics and distribution and economic development.Thirdly,using historical data to test the validity and reliability of the system dynamics model.Through continuous debugging and optimization,the model can reliably explain the intrinsic relationship between ecommerce and economic development.Then,with the validation of validity and reliability is completed,the simulation forecast and policy simulation analysis of the development trend of e-commerce are carried out.Finally,according to the simulation results and the conclusion of policy simulation analysis,combined with the current development of e-commerce in our country,we put forward appropriate countermeasures and suggestions for the development of e-commerce and the construction of supporting service system.Through the simulation and evaluation of policies,we found that improving the level of logistics services and the level of information technology support can greatly promote the development of e-commerce and national economy.However,increasing the impact of financial investment in fixed assets and talent incentive policies on ecommerce and economic development is not very obvious.On the basis of these,combined with the current situation,we put forward the following three suggestions:(1)Strengthen the guidance of the government,formulate laws and regulations,standardize the market order and cultivate talents of e-commerce.(2)Tap consumer demand,promote cross-border e-commerce,integrate fresh ecommerce and encourage rural e-commerce.(3)Optimize the development environment,increase technology research and development,standardize network finance and improve logistics level.