Prediction Of Rigid Demand For Commercial Housing

Housing demand is divided into self living demand (rigid demand and improving demand),investment and speculative demand in the current real estate market in China, terms that frequently appear in government documents is "protect of rigid demand, encourage improving demand, inhibitect of speculative investment demand". But there is no strict definition of these needs. So the self living housing demand of accurate definition and classification not only useful to the government establishing corresponding, the regulation and control policy, and help in the development of businesses in understanding the needs of the market on the basis of the characteristics, respect for the actual market, on-demand production, reduce the slow-moving and vacant and strong capital and liquidity. More critical is to promote the rational and effective use of scarce land resources.In this paper, the rigid demand of Kunming city as the research object, through the analysis of the residential market demand, and then define the rigid demand. Based by questionnaire survey way, on the one hand, to 2000-2014 years of Kunming City housing market rigid demand of statistical calculation and other aspects according to the basic characteristics of age stratified sampling to the potential demand for rigid and preference of demand for residential. Analysis of the research process is divided the factors influencing the housing rigid demand for demographic factors, economic factors, policy factors and other factors four categories of qualitative analysis, and preliminary screening 16 factors successively by the method of correlation analysis, stepwise regression method for quantitative analysis of rigid demand factors, ultimately determine entered the regression model of influencing factors respectively for per capita income and expenditure balance, average household employment population, number of households and housing prices, and defined as the independent variables in the housing rigid demand. The annual data of the residential market in Kunming city every year with the previous estimates of the rigid demand and the independent variables to establish multiple linear regression model, the housing rigid demand in Kunming city in the next 5 years the amount of. According to the calculation results, the different suggestions from real estate development enterprises, the government and the consumers of three levels.