Research And Application Of Clothing Demand Forecast Model

With the progress of the times and the development of globalization,the clothing industry has developed into a combination of all kinds of high-precision technology,and includes a comprehensive system of science,technology,art and innovation.China is the largest garment producer in the world and the largest consumer of clothing.On the whole,the development of China's apparel industry is quite uneven.The garment industry has four characteristics: large scale,large production,low level and poor structure.China is the largest garment processing base in the world,and Chinese made clothing accounts for 1/3 of the global total.The garment industry is the main source of China's export of foreign exchange,and the development of China's clothing industry is growing up.The economic benefits created every year are enough to be the front end of all industries,which greatly promote the development of our country's overall social and economic development,and the status of the pillar industry of its national economy is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,we can see that the development of garment enterprises plays a crucial role in the development of China's economy as a whole.The prediction of clothing demand is an important part of clothing production and sales.The precision of the forecast greatly affects the overall development of the garment industry.Excessive production causes the backlog of inventory to waste a large amount of resources.On the contrary,too low production will cause a large amount of loss of economy.Therefore,the importance of clothing sales prediction for clothing industry is self-evident.This paper is based on the actual situation of the production of garment enterprises in China,and combines relevant literature and professional knowledge to study and analyze the needs of X garment production enterprises,and designate the related demand forecasting model,in order to achieve the purpose of maintaining reasonable inventory and improve the economic benefits.The main contents of the paper are as follows:(1)Introduce the background and research significance of the subject,and analyze the status of the research on clothing demand forecast at home and abroad,and then introduce the process of demand forecasting and study the methods that can be applied to the prediction of clothing demand at present,and analyze the possible problems.(2)According to the difference of clothing types,four different forecasting methods areestablished by time series prediction method,grey system prediction method,exponential smoothing method and artificial neural network method,and the historical demand data of X enterprises are interpreted and analyzed.(3)In order to improve the precision of demand prediction,the IOWGA operator(induced ordered weighted average operator)is used to combine the single prediction model.The weight coefficient is given mainly according to the prediction accuracy of different single item prediction methods at different times.The higher the precision,the greater the weight coefficient,and finally a new one is established.Combined demand forecasting model.(4)To simulate the popular clothing,seasonal clothing,regional clothing and basic clothing of four kinds of clothing,the main use of different single prediction model and combination prediction model to predict,and then compare the predicted value with the actual value,and finally to verify the effectiveness of the combined prediction model.