The Analysis Of Investment Demand In China Commodity Housing Market

Since the housing reform in1998, Chinese housing market has beendeveloped dramatically. Especially after the year of2004, the commodityhousing price continuously soared. Although central government unveiledseveral rounds of continually upgraded real estate policies and tax policies,the housing market still keep a step-up status. Booming of the housingmarket played an important role in stimulating the national economy.However, as one special consumer product with inherent stronginvestment-attribute, the investment demand of housing has already exceededits consumption demand, especially in some first and second-tier cities.Excessive rise of housing price could pose the crowding-out effect onresidents’ daily consumption, which would seriously affect the harmoniousdevelopment of social economy. Also it would induce amounts of societycapitals flow into the real estate market, generate price bubbles and damageother entity industries. Therefore, in the phase of “Twelfth Five-year Plan” fully implemented, suppressing investment&speculative demand, adjustingstructure of housing demands, and promoting rational regression of houseprice are all the leading tasks in the current housing plan. This article willindirectly estimate the investment&speculative demand in Chinese realestate market from demographic factor through analysis of housingconsumption demand taking into residents’ traditional saving habits. All thesewill provide strong support to real estate finance in aspect of theory and data.