Research On Trend And Countermeasure Of Domestic Tourism Demand With Rigid Constraints Of Climate Resources

Domestic tourism demand in China is affected by many factors,including economic factors,political factors,social factors,cultural factors and resource factors.Based on the existing research results as the foundation,this paper takes Beijing,Zhejiang,Sichuan,Hainan,Guangdong “four provinces and one city” as the research object,in view of the monthly data of climatic resource indications(precipitation,wind speed,sunshine,temperature and relative humidity),the consumer price index by category,economic policy uncertainty,national statutory holiday days,constructs provincial panel data model and analyses the significance of climate resource indications' impact on domestic tourism demand.According to the model estimation results,there is a significant impact of climate resources on “four provinces and one city” of China's domestic tourism demand overall,and the significance is not the same of different climate resource indications on the domestic tourism demand in different provinces and cities.In order to realize the collaborative propulsion of the tourism industry development and the changes in climate resources,precisely predict the trend of domestic tourism demand under the rigid constraints of climate resources,promote the reform process of domestic tourism demand on both supply side and demand side,on the basis of grasping the connotation of traditional tourism climate index,this paper uses the elastic value between the five indications of tourism climate index and the domestic tourism demand of "four provinces and one city" to analyze the influence mechanism of each tourism climate index indication on domestic tourism demand of each province.Due to the differences in climate background and geographical location of provinces and cities,the tourism climate index indications have different effect on the domestic tourism demand in different provinces;the standardized construction of traditional tourism climate index did not consider local conditions and other issues.According to the result of elastic numerical normalization,this paper corrects the initial weight distribution of traditional tourism climate index,measures and contrasts the traditional tourism climate index and the modified tourism climate index.The big difference between the two measures indicates that there is some uncertainty between the traditional tourism climate index and the modified tourism climate index when explaining the change of domestic tourism demand of "four provinces and one city".There are some differences between different provinces and cities on which to explain and predict the domestic tourism demand more accurately as explanatory variable.By using the structural time series model,this paper takes the traditional tourism climate index and the modified tourism climate index as the explanatory variable respectively,decomposes the time series data of domestic tourism demand into several factors including trend(level and slope),cycle,seasonal and irregular factor,with Beijing,Zhejiang,Sichuan,Hainan and Guangdong "four provinces and one city" as representatives,predicts domestic tourism demand and analyzes the difference among three trend lines under the rigid constraint of non climatic resources,traditional tourism climate index and modified tourism climate index,compares the effects of traditional tourism climate index and modified tourism climate index on the prediction accuracy of domestic tourism demand.Further more,it uses RMSE value to determine the tourism climate index's weight standard of province(city)that has the best prediction accuracy of domestic tourism demand.Then according to the optimal tourism climate index,the domestic tourism demand and its changing trend of each province in the next two years,five years and fifteen years are predicted.The results show that,on the one hand,the structural time series model's prediction accuracy of domestic tourism demand is different under the traditional tourism climate index and the modified tourism climate index.The modified tourism climate index can relatively effectively improve the prediction accuracy of regional tourism demand.The daytime comfort index and precipitation index are the most important climatic factors.On the other hand,the sensitivity of domestic tourism demand to the rigid constraints of climate resources is different in different provinces and cities.There is a distinction of strong rigid constraints of climate resources and weak rigid constraints of climate resources.The strong or weak rigid constraints ofclimate resources has important influence on anticipation of the changing tendency of tourism demand during the period of "13th Five-Year",thereby affecting the optimization of regional tourism demand and supply policy.Based on the related research conclusion,this paper keeps a foothold on two perspectives of the supply side and demand side reforms,through the establishment of domestic tourism supply and demand policy matrix under the rigid constraints of climate resources,to realize the optimal selection of alternative policy instruments and the coupling strengthening of complementary policy instruments,and then puts forward sets of policy combination to optimize domestic tourism demand in China.From the perspective of the study,the paper makes the rigid restraint of climate resources on the development of domestic tourism demand clear;From the perspective of the theory,the paper puts forward the development strategy of tourism industry according to the adjustment of domestic tourism demand under the rigid constraints of climate resources;From the perspective of the technical method,the paper constructs modified tourism climate index,and puts forward that the prediction accuracy of domestic tourism demand in some provinces and cities is better under the modified tourist climate index.The research focuses on the empirical analysis and theoretical mechanism analysis of climate resources' influence on domestic tourism demand,focuses on innovation of tourism climate index correction under the new issue,focuses on the comparative study on prediction and the change trend of domestic tourism demand with the rigid constraints of climate resources or not.