Research On Hebei Vegetables Price Fluctuation

Vegetables, refers to as few woody plants and herbaceous plants and fungi collectively foodstuffs, it is the people’s daily necessities, its production and consumption of the people’s livelihood, millions of households. "Basket" problem on the one hand contact with the rural economic development, farmers’ income, on the other hand contact with the daily life of urban residents, the interests of the residents, both of which are a big problem of people’s livelihood. Reasonable fluctuations in the price of vegetables can be vegetable production and consumption plays an active regulatory role, but in recent years, volatility in the price of vegetables, vegetable market volatility caused, resulting in instability of farmers income, is not conducive to vegetable industry healthy development, but also on the lives of urban residents had a negative impact, the more intense the reaction residents, attracted the attention of government and society.As China’s Hebei Province, an important production base of vegetables, vegetable price fluctuations in Hebei Province as the research object, to explore the characteristics and laws of vegetable price volatility for the promotion of the development of vegetable industry, to stabilize the market and prices have theoretical and practical significance.Taking price fluctuations Vegetable Hebei law main line, summarize the relevant theoretical basis vegetable price volatility, based on the analysis of annual vegetable in Hebei Province, monthly prices fluctuation characteristics, rules, and review the reasonable prices of vegetables changes, factors affecting vegetable price volatility is discussed. Finally, policy recommendations to stabilize vegetable prices abnormal fluctuations. This paper is divided into six parts:Part one: Literature Review describes the research background, significance, methods, content, innovation and vegetable prices as well as deficiency related aspects.Part two: Mainly expounds the theory vegetable price fluctuations. Including price fluctuations in the general theory, theory of agricultural products to price fluctuations for this paper provides a theoretical basis.Part three: Annual and monthly from two perspectives on the issues vegetable price trends, fluctuation of the trading range, classification vegetable price fluctuations and other characteristics are analyzed in detail, the above study shows Hebei vegetable price fluctuations regularity.Part four: To investigate the factors affecting annual and monthly price fluctuations, andfactor analysis method to analyze the factors affecting the annual price fluctuations, the application CensusX12 method to analyze the impact of seasonal factors on the monthly price and use vector autoregression model analysis Hebei and Beijing area interaction cabbage prices.Part five: Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward that establishing the information platform of vegetables, a reasonable guide the production and circulation; Establish vegetables price stabilisation funds, to reduce the market risk; Play to the role of the professional cooperatives, improve the ability of vegetable producers to adapt to the market to dampen fluctuations in the price of vegetables such as countermeasures and Suggestions.Part six: Conclusion and prospect.Possible innovations of this article are: first, the existing research results of the annual price change interval is less scope of the analysis. Based on the prices of vegetables 1990-2014 quantitative analysis, described in vegetable prices fluctuation on the basis of the average interval proposed scope of the annual fluctuations in the prices of vegetables; second, the existing research results, in the study of monthly price changes, select the type of small, and fluctuation of prices of vegetables during the month lack of research. This article is divided into five categories 15 kinds of vegetables, use the monthly price of 2007 to 2015 period, the average price calculated on the basis of analysis of the monthly price movement trend classification of vegetables and monthly price range of each type of vegetable. Third, the analysis model vegetable price volatility factors, the research results have been compared to an increase of inflation and deflation factors, further reflect the impact of economic changes under the new normal trend of prices of vegetables; and analyzes the regional changes in the prices of vegetables interaction, further enriching the vegetable price fluctuations factors.