Research On Vegetable Price Resilience

Affected by various factors, vegetable prices in China suffer sharp fluctuations frequently in recent years. Vegetable prices volatility not only harm the interests of consumers and welfare of producers, increase market risks of distributors, but also affect the overall price level, GDP growth, the development of related industries and social stability and so on. Thus, stabilizing vegetable prices has become a community problem desire to solve eagerly. In view of the reality of the frequent and abnormal fluctuations of vegetable prices, market supply and demand theory and resilience theory are used in this paper to analyze the present situation and characteristics of vegetable price fluctuations in China, study effecting factors of vegetable price volatility and explore their influence for vegetable price reliance, providing theoretical support and empirical recommendations for the establishment of vegetable price stabilization mechanisms.The paper considers the status quo of vegetable price fluctuations in China as a starting point. Firstly, based on statistical data of vegetable prices as well as descriptive statistics, paper analyzes trends and status quos of vegetable price volatilities.Secondly, according to market supply and demand theory in Western economics, the effecting factors of vegetable price fluctuations are discussed from supply factors, demand factors and other factors. Supply factors include vegetable production, cost factor, natural factor, production technology and vegetable prices expectations of producers; Demand factors include domestic consumer demand, vegetable exports, income levels and consumer preferences; Other factors include economic growth and inflation, information asymmetry and policy factors.Thirdly, drawing on ecological resilience theory, the theoretical assumptions and model building of vegetable prices resilience are described to conduct empirical analysis. Six studies indicators of vegetables prices resilience analysis are chosen by Factor analysis method: natural factors, distribution cost, vegetable consumption, production cost, vegetable exports and economic growth. Empirical Analysis of vegetable prices resilience includes the disturbance pressure analysis of vegetable prices, sensitivity analysis of vegetable prices to various factors and the quantitative estimates of vegetable prices resilience. The disturbance pressure analysis shows that vegetable prices in China suffer both upward pressure and downward pressure after having been interfered by different factors; The sensitivity analysis shows that the order of vegetable prices’ sensitivity on different factors is natural factors, distribution cost, vegetables consumption, production cost, vegetable export and economic growth; Vegetable prices resilience analysis shows that other factors remain unchanged, while natural factors and distribution cost change, vegetable prices resilience is small, while vegetables export and economic changes, vegetable prices resilience is relatively large.Finally, based on the result of vegetable prices resilience analysis and the main factors for vegetable prices volatility, suggestions on the stability of vegetable prices in China are made : strengthen natural disaster prevention to guarantee an effective supply of vegetables; plan production and distribution rationally to control vegetables cost; raise income levels to guarantee steady growth of vegetables demand; rationalize production to guarantee a steady supply of vegetables; reduce green trade barriers to guarantee steady growth of vegetables export; strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control to guarantee price vegetables stability.