Cause Mechanism, Welfare Effect And Countermeasure Study Of Vegetable Prices Short-term Fluctuation

After the reform and opening, vegetables prices which are market-driven becometo fluctuate, the ups and downs of vegetable prices makes vegetable farmers continueto adjust planting area, the unstable state of the production exacerbates the fluctuationsof vegetables prices in turn. Highly volatile price is not only related to vegetablesgrower interests and channel business’s, but also linked to millions of family andconsumer welfare. Therefore, it is important practical significance to study thevegetables prices on the improvement of the people’s living standards and develop theoverall economics.This paper uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, base onthe conclusion of the price fluctuation correlation theory and literature, this article inaccordance with ideas of economics "what""why" and "how", firstly with ourcountry’s policy factors, this paper analyzes the historical data of1978~2011vegetables prices fluctuation, excluding long-term trends, it is divided into five pricefluctuation cycles on a basis of variation rate change and analyzes each period indifferent degree of vegetables prices fluctuation; Then, this article takes internalconduction and external impact as classification criteria, explores the causes andmechanism of the fluctuations in the vegetable price, Through the establishment of aset of simultaneous equations regression model, the article quantifies the impact offluctuations in the vegetable price for residents’ welfare in urban, rural as well asdifferent income groups in urban; The results show that the reaction of the rural toshort-term fluctuations in the vegetable price is more obvious than town, aslow-income groups in urban as high-income groups. When vegetable prices rise, ruralresidents need more money to subsidize, when vegetables prices decline, the welfareloss of the rural is less than the town. So as low-income groups in urban; Finally, thispaper gives some suggestions for the government to stabilize the prices of vegetables,improving the people’s living standards.