The Research On The Price Fluctuation Of Vegetables In Yunnan Province

Vegetable is closely related to living,is the general consumer necessities of life,is not only an important source of increasing farmers’ income,also decided to a great extent the nutrition level and dietary structure of residents.Vegetable industry as a sunrise industry in Yunnan province,during the period of 12 th Five Year Plan have made some achievements,in order to further promote the development of vegetable industry and increase rural incomes,the provincial government issued the further promote the development of characteristic industry during the 13 th Five Year Plan to further promote the development of specialty industries such as vegetables and the rural economic development in agriculture.However,influenced by different factors,vegetable prices slump phenomenon often appear,seriously affected the production and living vegetable producers and consumers,both increase the risk of farmers planting,unfavorable to increasing farmers’ income to get rich,also brought huge economic pressure for the consumers in recent years.Therefore,the research and analysis fluctuations in the price of vegetables features,trend and its influence of Yunnan province,to guide the healthy and continuous development of vegetable industry,promote the farmers’ income,improvement of residents’ consumption level,maintain economic and social stability is of great significance.Based on the related scholars both in China and abroad researching on vegetable price fluctuations.Guiding by equilibrium price and transaction cost theory,adopting a lot of methods to analyze,such as literature,field interviews,comparative analysis and model study.Firstly,selected Chinese cabbage,rape,cucumber,tomato,cowpea,potatoes,six different vegetable varieties of monthly price from 2010 to 2014 to analyze the seasonal fluctuations of vegetables.Then using the vegetable retail price index to analyze the interannual fluctuations of vegetables of Yunnan,the country and Shandong three region from 2003 to 2014.Secondly,from demand,supply,and other factors three aspects analyze the factors affecting the vegetable price fluctuation.Then selected the seven more representative factors in factor analysis.Through calculating the factor score and comprehensive sequencing,finding out the main factors which causes vegetable prices fluctuate frequently.Finally,according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,the countermeasure and suggestion which stable price change were given pertinently.Through the above research,the results showed:(1)the characteristics: thinking in terms of seasonal characteristics,founding that is similar to the rule of seasonal fluctuations of Chinese cabbage and rape,a "n" type.Similar wave characteristics of cucumber,tomato,cowpea,a "U" shaped.Potatoes price fluctuations are relatively stable,besides fluctuation at the beginning of a fierce,the rest in small changes.Thinking in terms of interannual characteristics,the vegetable prices rising trend year by year,and annual price fluctuation characteristics of Yunnan and Shandong are largely the same,but had certain differences compared with the country from 2003 to 2014.(2)The theoretical analysis results show that the factors of supply,such as climate,production cost,etc.The factors of demand such as population,income level,exports,and the factors of other factors in policies,the circulation situation,information,regional differences and the characteristics of their own vegetables factors affected the vegetable price fluctuations in Yunnan in a certain extent.Supply and demand has a bigger influence on price fluctuation in the vegetables,but we don’t underestimate the impact of the policy and the condition of circulation and information etc.However the important factors that affect vegetable price fluctuations is supply factor.(3)The factor analysis results show that the vegetables planting area,output,GDP is a reflection of vegetables supply capacity.Per capita disposable income of urban households,the district’s population ultimately reflect the demand of vegetable.Price Indices of Means of Agricultural production is the embodiment of the vegetable production cost.Fresh consumer price index finally reflect the cost of citizens to buy vegetables.By calculating the factor score and comprehensive sequencing we found that the main factors of vegetable prices fluctuate frequently according to its influence degree in order is vegetable planting area,GDP,vegetable production,per capita disposable income of urban households,regional population and food consumption price index,price indices of means of agricultural production.Vegetable planting area,GDP,vegetable production are the main factor to vegetables.(4)The measures stability of Yunnan vegetable prices including:Ensuring effective supply of vegetables;Guiding the reasonable consumer demand;Strengthening the vegetable policy support;Improving the regulatory system for vegetable markets.