The Influence Of Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union On Commodity Export Trade Of Xinjiang,China

Since its establishment in November 27, 2009, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Custom Union(hereinafter referred to as Custom Union) have lasted more than four years. With the process progresses of economic integration of Custom Union, the trade effects arising from the establishment of the Custom Union inevitably have an impact on its neighboring countries and regions, especially China will bear the brunt. As an important gateway for China opening to the west, Xinjiang has been maintained good trade partnerships with Russia, white, Kazakhstan, where Kazakhstan is the largest trading partner of Xinjiang.With the establishment of the Custom Union, it is bound to affect the development of export trade of China’s Xinjiang goods. Therefore, the study on Custom Union influence on the export trade of Chinese Xinjiang goods, not only promotes the export trade development of Xinjiang goods and enhances the influence of Xinjiang in the international market, but also has a certain reference value for the future economic and social development of Xinjiang’s foreign trade.This study firstly analyzes the situation of goods export trade of Xinjiang, China before and after the establishment of the Custom Union in terms of trade scale, trade growth and trade structures, then analyzes the trade effects of Custom Union through the Balassa model. Based on this, the study also analyzes the influence of Custom Union on the export trade of Chinese Xinjiang goods in terms of the multi-angle study of trade strength, trade flows, and analyzes the affecting factors of commodity export structure of China’s Xinjiang under the background of Custom Union.Finally, with the empirical analysis, this study explores that Custom Union has brought opportunities and challenges to the export trade development of Chinese Xinjiang goods, as well as makes a forecast for the future commodity exports development of Xinjiang.Then, the study raises the policy recommendations of promoting the future development for the export trade of Xinjiang goods from the perspective of dealing with these challenges and opportunities.Through research, we draw the following conclusions:(1) The trade diversion arising from Custom Union is very clear, and brings a big impact to the development of China’s Xinjiang goods export;(2) After the establishment of the Custom Union, the export trade closeness appears continuously weak between China(Xinjiang) and the Custom Union, even China(Xinjiang) and Russia, China(Xinjiang) and Belarus,China(Xinjiang) and Kazakhstan. This phenomenon shows the gradual decline of the level of exports of China(Xinjiang), and the imported goods from China(Xinjiang) to Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which adversely affects the export trade of China(Xinjiang) goods;(3) There are two aspects of export trade flows in Xinjiang China to Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan: the economy scale in Xinjiang(GDP) and population size of the importing country has a positive role in promoting the export trade flows of goods in Xinjiang; Xinjiang GDP deflator, bilateral trade distance and the establishment of Custom Union have significant impediment to the commodity export trade flows of Xinjiang;(4) The Custom Union affect Xinjiang export commodity structure in the aspect of the gradual increase of primary products and the gradual decreased manufactured goods, and affect the performance of Xinjiang export market structure inthe aspect of the larger market share for Kazakhstan, while relatively less market share for other countries.(5) Under the background of Custom Union, the export trade structure of China’s Xinjiang goods is mainly affected by four aspects of demand, tariffs, trade policy and dependency.