Research On Shanxi Vegetable Price Fluctuation And Influence Factors

The stability of the price of vegetables is essential for mobilizing farmers’ enthusiasm for production and for keeping social and economic stably. The research object of this article is in Shanxi Province vegetable market wholesale prices, This article analyzes the current situation in Shanxi vegetable production industry using the comparison analytic method and adopts the method of combining empirical analysis and normative analysis, the method of combining the micro and macro. The economic cycle theory, the equilibrium price theory, the internal conduction model, the external shock model, cobweb model. On this basis, the article analyzes the long-term trends and changes in the general characteristics of vegetable prices and the price movements of different vegetable varieties feature. Subsequently, the paper analyzes the factors that affect vegetable prices fluctuate from supply factors, demand factors and other factors. Then, the article select the indicator system which were affect the price of vegetables in Shanxi. After determining the raw data is suitable for factor analysis by KMO test and Bartlett test and analysis of common premise, the Article chose principal component analysis. The supply of vegetables is the first common factor reactions, including production costs, vegetable supply, vegetable planting area and the weather factors. The second common factor reaction people demand for vegetables, including residents’ consumption levels and production costs. The results show that the amount of the load values of vegetables is max in the first common factors and the level of consumption load value is max in the second common factor. The last part of the article made some recommendations. Such as, ensure the supply of vegetables in Shanxi, forecast the demand of vegetables effectively, construct vegetables information platform further.