Research On Shanxi Province Fruit Price Fluctuation And Influence Factors

The fruit is the third larget farm produce next to grain and vegetables.For a long period.the fruit industry plays an irreplaceable role in riching the"vegetable basket" of urban and country residents,increasing farmers income and earning foreign exchange revenue.Since the project of standard orchard were implemented,fruit industry was large-scaled and regionalized directed in Shanxi Province.It was helpful to optimize structure of agriculture.increase farmers' income and prosper rural economy.However,fruit prices have been fluctuated frequently and intensely in recent years.The abnormal fluctuations of fruit prices of Shanxi Province plays a negative effect in the motivation of fanners.the improvement of their living standard and the healthy development of the economy.Therefore.it is necessary to explore its fluctuation rule and influential factors.It is of great significant for stabilizing fruit prices and improving living standards of the citizen.Above all.the general situation of fruit production in Shanxi province is analyzed.Based on that,the article applys descriptive statistical analysis on fruit prices in Shanxi province.And then the X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method are used to make an empirical analysis about the fruit prices fluctuation in Shanxi province. Secondly,in the perspective of supply and demand of fruit as well as other aspects,theoretical analysis is applied to research on ingredients that affect the volatility of fruit prices in Shanxi province.Thirdly,the multiple regression model is used to do the empirical research on factors that affect the volatility of fruit prices.Finally.based on analysis results.recommendations are made to stabilize fruit prices in Shanxi province.The above research shows that:? Overall.fruit price in Shanxi province showed a rising trend and acute volatility in the short term.Besides.there are obvious seasonal and periodic characteristics.? Agricultural production price index increased 1% and fruit prices will go up 1.068%.the disposal income of urban residents increased 1% and fruit prices will rise 1.065%.the fruit yield increased 1% and fruit prices will go up 0.561%,damage area increased 1% and fruit prices will rise 0.017%.? Measures can be taken to stabilize fruit prices include developing the farmer specialized cooperative economic organiazations to ensure the steady market supply.reducing the production cost to ensure the steady growth of farmers income,reducing the circulation cost through encouraging various effective forms of direct sale method.strengthenting nature disaster warning to weaken its effect in fruit prices,improving the agricultural information service.establishing early warning platform of fruit prices,improving incomes of the citizen to guarantee steady growth in demand of fruit.