Research On Logistics Capacity Decision With Demand Information Updating

The professional service outsourcing has become a fashion in the twenty-first century and the service industry has become a fresh power in the economic development. Capacity planning problem of the service industry has been the focus of concern for enterprises. With the rapid development of logistics service industry, the traditional asset-based logistics enterprises give way to modern logistics enterprises offering professional and integrated service. These logistics enterprises called logistics services integrator play important roles in the supply chain. Logistics services integrator acquires basic logistics capacity through external providers. However, how to make the optimal capacity that best matches the logistics capacity and demand to avoid the risk of capacity surplus and capacity shortage is a problem faced by many logistics service integrator. Optimizing the logistics capacity decision can improve the level of management. The optimal capacity investment decision has to balance various factors. The influence of various market factors makes logistics demand uncertain, but also has some rules to follow. Logistics services integrator need to forecast the demand and constantly observe market signals to adjust the capacity decision.First, this paper analyze the characteristics of the logistics demand and define the logistics capacity and set up a logistics service supply chain network framework. Then use the demand information updating theory based on Bias statistical inference to set up logistics capacity decision model with two decision period. Then use the method of dynamic programming to solve the model and analyze the mechanism of market information on optimal logistics capacity decision. Finally, numerical experiments are made to demonstrate the effects of parameters to the solution and profit analysis.