Econometric Analysis Of The Interaction Between Arable Land Resources Change And Economic Development In Qinglong Manchu Autonomous County

At present stage, driven by the economic development, population increase and policy induction, many urban construction lands in our country present disordered spread expansion. This caused severe challenges for the protection of lands in urban edge zones, especially for the cultivated lands. Although our national territorial areas are larger and the material resources are abundant, an enormous population and long-term shortage of cultivated land resources make per capital cultivated areas become far below world average level. Moreover, food security problem can not be ignored. Based on the current background of the increasing pressure of the cultivated land protection, the exploration on urban reasonable land use scale should be imperative, which is good for the scientific decision made by related administrative departments.Numerous experts and scholars at home and abroad conducted multi-angle explorations on the relationship between the changes of cultivated land areas and the growth of the economic. The paper makes reference to the predecessors’research results, applies chart analysis, coordination degree model. Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition, etc. methods, selects the cultivated land areas to represent the changes of cultivated land quantities, adopts Gross Domestic Product, per capita Gross Domestic Product of alternative indicators and the three main industries to stand for the development level of the economic, applies the rural per capital netw income and rural Engel coefficient of alternative indicators to reflect the farmers’living standards and analyze the interactive meachnism of changes in cultivated land resources and economic development of Qinglong Autonomous Manchu County in Hebei province.The following conclusions can be drawn:(1) At different periods, dependence severity of economic development on cultivated land resources has different expressions. At present, the relationship between them is reconciled reluctantly and the recession risk of the cultivated land resources is larger. Second order difference of cultivated area sequence and each economic indicator sequence is steady and maintains long-term dynamic equilibrium.(2) In different period, the type of coordination degree of the different economic index in the villages and towns and the cultivated land is not coordinated and forced harmonic condition on the whole. The change of coordination scores of the villages and towns located near to the county level are larger than the villages and towns located in the geometric central. The complex topography made the northwest area was more sensitive than the southeast area at the changes of the coordination degree between the cultivated land resource and the economic.(3) The changes in production values of the secondary industry and the changes of cultivated land areas are reciprocal Granger causation. The growth of the production value of the primary industry and the third industry is one-way Granger cause of cultivated area variation. The reduction of cultivated land resources is one-way Granger cause of GDP, per capita GDP, farmer’s per capita income and the changes of rural engel coefficient.(4) Comparing with the development of the secondary industry, the primary industry and the third industry cause less pricing consumption on the cultivated lands. Improvement of the farmers’ living standards will be reduced constrained by the cultivated lands. The secondary industry, rural Engel coefficient and per capita GDP have a larger influence on the cultivated land quantity. The increase and decrease of the cultivated land resources greatly contribute to the changes in farmers’ per capital income, the primary industry and GDP.