Analysis And Prediction Of The Arable Land And Soci-economic Development Based On Support Vector Machine

Since reform and opening-up, with the rapid development of the Chinese economyand the speed up of industrialization and urbanization, arable land resource hasconstantly been converted to construction land. The reduction of the arable land resourceintensifies the contradiction between soci-economic development and arable land. Theeconomy development will slow down without necessary land resource for support.Whereas, the food security can’t be guaranteed if the arable land resource isover-occupied. It’s real problem that has to be resolved for how to balance thesoci-ecomomic development and arable land resource.This author takes Jiangxi province as an example, researching on the relationshipbetween social development and arable land, and investigating on measures forharmonizing the two. This dissertation firstly analyzes the back ground of the variation ofthe economy development and arable land, and discourses the research purpose andsignificance. Whereafter quote the economy development and arable land data of1990--2009for empirical analysis, and conduct data analysis respectively on the demandfor land of the three key index of the social development of Jiangxi province: GDP,urbanization rate and fixed assets investments, and then draw qualitative conclusions.The empirical analysis shows that the urbanization rate is the most important factoraffecting the amount of arable land. SVM has a superior performance obtained in thegoodness of fit and generalization ability t through the comparison of the ARIMA and BP neural network and support vector machine (SVM) method, And using SVM method topredict urbanization rate and then use the forecast data to predict the cultivated area inJiangxi province. Finally, give some countermeasures and suggestions of thecoordination between socieconomic development and the amount of cultivated land inJiangxi Province, The result of the study indicates:It’s a highly negative correlation among the arable land, GDP and urbanization inJiangxi province. Typically during the preliminary of economical rapid development, itlargely depended on arable land, i.e. developing economy on sacrifice of arable land.Thereamone, urbanization is the strongest influence on arable land.The arable land in Jiangxi Province decreased steadily during1990-2000, andaccelerated to decrease during2000-2010. It can be predicted that the decrease of thearable land tends to slow down during2020-2030, and will be stable after2030. Itcorresponds with the pace of the economical development of Jiangxi province,development tendency in the future and urbanization process.It’s predicted that arable land in Jiangxi province will keep steadily and degressivelydecreasing. It corresponds with the promotion for the conservation of the arable land andthe transformation of economic structure. Along with the transformation of economicstructure and intensive land utilization, the arable land will degessively decrease.According to the prediction result, Urbanization level of64%and the arable landinventory will be266million hectares in Jiangxi province by2030. Along with theadjustment of economic structure, industrial upgrade and the improvement of intenseutilization Jiangxi province, the arable land will degressively decrease. It indirectlyproves that the non-agricultural-transformation of arable land corresponds with thehypothesis of Kuznetscurve.