| After the WTO, China cotton market together with the world market, the cotton trade liberalization is further developing. China not only become the world’s largest cotton producer, but also consumer and importer. Xinjiang is the largest provinces of cotton-producing and cotton-exporting area, developing the Xinjiang cotton trade help to sustain growth of Chinese cotton market, At the same time to promote the rural economic development and increasing the farmers’income in Xinjiang. But in recent years, Xinjiang cotton import and export situation has greatly changed, Because of the cotton price volatility is larger,imported cotton with high quality and cheap, the government purchase price does not conform to the market value principle, The Xinjiang cotton farmers planting enthusiasm has been greatly reduced, Resulting in Xinjiang cotton exports began to decline and imports increasing gradually, Xinjiang cotton trade From surplus became deficit, For this reason, with the normative analysis and quantitative analysis study of factors affecting Xinjiang cotton export and import, on the basis of steady development of Xinjiang cotton trade.In order to find out The main influencing factors of affecting the Xinjiang cotton export and Xinjiang cotton import trade, combining with the imports and consumption of the cotton of China increases year by year and comprehensive situation of the Xinjiang unbalanced cotton trade development,to build the analysis framework of Xinjiang cotton export volume and Xinjiang cotton import volume as the dependent variable respectively, using an empirical analysis method to test the size of the affecting factors of Xinjiang cotton export volume and Xinjiang cotton import volume. According to the results of the analysis, we can putting forward the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions in the future to ensure the steady development in Xinjiang cotton trade, expand the level of Xinjiang cotton trade and establish the long-term, stable also safe cotton supply mechanism.With using the EVEIWS software, first of all we utilize the stepwise regression method to determine the main factors of effecting on the dependent variable and then through the establishment of binary regression model to carry on the empirical analysis to test the influencing degree of main factors to the dependent variable respectively. On the basis of testing by the stepwise regression method we get known that China’s demand for cotton and Xinjiang cotton export prices are the largest influencing factors in Xinjiang cotton exports, Xinjiang cotton outputs and the RMB exchange rate are the largest influencing factors of Xinjiang cotton imports. The analysis result shows that the main cause of the decrease of Xinjiang cotton export volume and the increase of the Xinjiang cotton import volume are the slowing down growth of the Xinjiang cotton outputs, weakening competition of Xinjiang cotton export prices and increase demand for cotton of China. We put forward a suggestion should be given by reducing the production cost of Xinjiang cotton, construction of modern circulation system of Xinjiang cotton, speeding up the process of mercerization of Xinjiang and improving the market system of Xinjiang so that ensure the balance of Xinjiang cotton trade. |
