Research On The Relationship Between Import And Export Trade And Economic Increase In Yunnan

As one of the troika to stimulate the economy,the import and export trade plays a more and more important role in promoting the economic growth of a country and a region.How strong is the role of the import and export trade in Yunnan province to promote the regional economic growth? How does the import and export trade affect the industrial structure of Yunnan? The answer to these questions is not only of academic significance but also of practical significance.Firstly,we analyze the development of Yunnan's social economy and foreign trade in recent years,calculate the contribution rate and pull effect of Yunnan's import and export trade to economic growth.The results showed that the export trade had a greater effect on the economic growth of Yunnan Province.And the regression analysis between the total volume of import and export trade and the gross domestic product of Yunnan Province showed that there is a significant positive correlation between total import and export trade and GDP in Yunnan Province.And each increase of 1 percentage point in total import and export trade will lead to an increase of 0.21 percentage points in the gross domestic product(GDP)of Yunnan Province.Secondly,we construct the VAR model,and use a series of technical means,such as impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis to discuss the relationship between the import and export trade of Yunnan Province and the three industries.The results show that the import and export trade plays a positive role in promoting the development of the three industries,among which the first and third industries are greatly promoted.The three industries of Yunnan Province play a dual role in promoting and suppressing the development of import and export trade.Among them,the second and third industries play a greater role in promoting the development of import and export trade than in restraining them.The third industry has more inhibitory effect on the development of import and export trade than on promoting it.