Research On The Forecast Of Total Import And Export Volume Of China’s Foreign Trade Based On Composite Quantile Regression Method

With the advancement of the integration of the world structure,foreign trade,as an economic link between my country and other countries,occupies a higher and higher position in my country’s national economy.The development status of foreign trade is directly related to the development level of our country.A healthy and stable foreign trade plays an important role in enhancing the competitiveness of the country.Therefore,forecasting my country’s foreign trade has good practical significance and research value.Based on the background of my country’s foreign trade development,this paper uses the composite quantile regression series estimation method to model and forecast the time series of my country’s total import and export volume.The main contents are as follows:First,the research methods used in my country’s foreign trade forecast are introduced,and The overall development of my country’s foreign trade market under the background of the new crown epidemic.Second,the composite quantile regression series estimation method is applied to the forecasting analysis of China’s foreign trade to improve the forecasting accuracy of China’s foreign trade.Modeling of my country’s total import and export data from the perspective of quantile time series regression,Using the composite quantile regression estimation method to accurately estimate China’s total import and export data in the context of stable market development(2017-2018),realizing my country’s import and export data A reasonable forecast of the total.Finally,according to the total import and export data during the outbreak of the new crown epidemic(2019-2020),the weighted composite quantile regression estimation method is used to perform a modeling analysis,and an effective analysis and accurate analysis of the development trend of my country’s foreign trade market under the influence of the new crown epidemic is given.predict.Because my country’s total import and export volume is easily affected by both politics and economy,traditional forecasting methods cannot accurately predict fluctuations with special significance.The analysis results show that the composite quantile regression series estimation method can reasonably predict my country’s total import and export volume under sudden risk fluctuations.