Research On Measuring Rural Household Vulnerability To Poverty Of Mountain Area In The West Of Henan Province

With the deepening of poverty alleviation, the actual effect is gradually weakening,established poverty reduction policies cannot meet the needs of poverty alleviation in todayand future, which is outstanding performance in difficult to make a significant povertyreduction because of the alternate movements between our of poverty rate and returning topoverty rate. Economists have realized that family welfare depends not only on currentincome and consumption, but also on possible future risks. Therefore, the vulnerability topoverty concept came into being, with its advantages of forward-looking, risk and micro-levelconcerns focusing, it is rapidly becoming a hot topic. There are nearly half farmers live in themountains in China, who have lower living standard. Under the background of the rural labortransfer, their income and consumption situation presents new features, which leads newchanges in poverty, so it is necessary to study rural household vulnerability to poverty in thesituation of migrant. Besides, previous studies mostly focused on pure measure analysis,overall factors research is not expanded, the article made up for this deficiency by analyzingthe rural household vulnerability to poverty classify of mountain area in the west of Henanprovince.The article first introduced the research background, purpose and meaning and dynamicsstudies, based on this it illustrated the mechanism of vulnerability to poverty, and defined theevaluation method and analysis paradigm of this article. Then, it analyzed the nowadays ruralhousehold livelihood of the mountain area in the west of Henan province using survey data,and generalized the detailed farmers’ livelihood through poverty index and livelihoodvulnerability. Again, the article established a model of household consumption mean andconsumption variance, and it measured the vulnerability to poverty using three-stage leastsquares based on VEP model as well as discussed depending on overall and classification,besides, it also analyzed the similarities and differences among different parts combined withquantile regression. Finally, based on the above analysis, it had a comprehensive summary,and proposed targeted suggestions to lower vulnerability to poverty, and the article also offered some research prospects.Through research, there are several main research results in this paper.(1) The farmers inthe west Henan province are relatively poor, livelihood vulnerability is high, and significantregional differences in this area, serious in west and east parts, so they should be majorlysupported.(2) Migrant can influence the vulnerability to poverty through its effect onconsumption mean and variance, which can significantly affect future consumption mean, butonly lower level workers can reduce future consumption fluctuations through migrant.(3) Thelevel of vulnerability to poverty is lower in study area, however, there are obvious regionaldifferences, the highest in the eastern region while the lowest in the middle; it is not onlyserious about differentiation among different areas, but also has large differences among thehouseholds.(4) It is negative relationship between household cultivated area, the number offamily labor, community factor, the current consumption and vulnerability to poverty, the rolethat social relationship variable can reduce the vulnerability only makes a different onmedium and low vulnerability rural households, disease shock or household head age plays anpositive role in vulnerability to poverty.(5) Classification analysis results in the overall senseshowed that high vulnerability farmers are sensitive to risk factor and enhanced factor,however, to medium and low vulnerability rural households, stability factor and risk factor aremain factors affecting vulnerability, and thus those opinions can guide to practical decliningpoverty from both macro and micro aspects.(6) It suggests that we should take measures toreduce vulnerability to poverty based on family and government view.