The Research On Risk Early-warning Of Chongqing Real Estate Market Based On The Comprehensive Simulation Method

As China’s Real Estate market is an important consumer market and investmentmarket，its trend has been a concern.With the acceleration of urbanization and the reformof housing system, the Real Estate industry of China has achieved rapid development inrecent years, the supply and the demanding presents a booming market. On the onehand，the Real Estate investment accounted for the proportion of investment in fixedassets is rising, the balance relating to real estate loans are also rising rapidly; on theother hand，a sharp rise in commodity prices, the discussions of whether the domesticprices are reasonable of the current Real Estate market. In recent years,with theacceleration of urbanization as well as the overall economic development of Chongqing，the transfer of the rural population and the increase in foreign population of Chongqingurban development and Real Estate development meet a great opportunity. At the sametime, a growing number of development companies and speculators in the real estatemarket of Chongqing makes the development environment of the Real Estate marketbecomes increasingly complex, and the sources of risk increases. Thus insight into theReal Estate market risks which may exist and then take effective measures tocircumvent， for the interests of stakeholders in terms of the Real Estate market becomesincreasingly important.This paper summarized the general theory of the Real Estate market risk-warningstudies and analysed the causes of the Real Estate market risk. Secondly, the status of thedevelopment of the Real Estate market in Chongqing was analysed detailly, and overallthe current Real Estate market is relatively stable. Combined with this situation of theReal Estate market in Chongqing, this paper uses statistical methods and status ofliterature forms the factors from the economic development in Chongqing Real Estatemarket, the coordinating relations with the national economy from the Real Estateindustry, the growth rate of the Real Estate itself, as well as the state of the coordinationbetween the Real Estate supply and demand this four aspects of Real Estate to build theindex system of the risk warning of Chongqing Real estate. Finally, a combination ofChongqing2002-2013years of Real Estate-related data, using the comprehensivesimulation method and the ARIMA model for a comprehensive risk warning ofChongqing Real Estate market during2014-2015, the result showed that Chongqing RealEstate market trends will continue to rise during2014-2015, based on the second half of2013,and is likely to break through the cordon and appear overheated market in2015. Inorder to prevent the further expansion of the Real Estate market risk of Chongqing, thisarticle attempt to give the corresponding avoidance and measures from the perspective ofthe Real Estate development enterprise and government.