Study Of Urban Real Estate Market Risk Warning

The real estate now is playing more and more important role in Chinese economics. But our real estate market is still in confusion. In order to avoid the situation and develop in a stable and healthy way, it is necessary to monitor the real estate fluctuation and predict the future trend.This paper, on the basis of previous research, defines the notion of urban real estate early-warning system and its critical characteristics, probes into the main economic early-warning theories, compares the different early-warning systems and methods. A classification is made on the system of real estate warning, as well as the fundamental procedure of real estate's warning. It is proposed in the paper that the statistical early-warning system can better meet the need of real estate warning in China. The paper makes a quantitative analysis on both single warning index and comprehensive warning indexes about the real estate in Jinan city in 2006. It is pointed out that the whole real estate market in Jinan works healthily, except some specific indexes which lie in comparative hotter zone.The demonstration is consistent with the status in Jinan on the whole, which proved the system has some feasibility.