Study On Real Estate Market Risk Early-warning Of Chongqing

Along with the housing system reform advancement and urbanized advancement quickening, our country real estate industry has obtained the fast development in recent years, 1997-2006 year nation real estate market presents the supply and sales two prosperous patterns.The property development investment cost accounts for the investment in the fixed assets proportion to enlarge unceasingly, the real estate correlation loan remaining sum also fast rises, a commodity house price gutt maybe city commodity apartment price has the great scope rise, domestic and foreign about present house price whether reasonable, the real estate market is the superheat big discussion also from this launches.This article first introduced the real estate market risk general theory, detailed analysis real estate market risk meaning, risk manifestation, risk production mechanism as well as real estate market risk characteristic.The union real estate economical cycle undulatory theory, analyzed the real estate cycle undulatory theory to construct the real estate market risk early warning the guiding sense.Next utilization macroscopic economy early warning theory, proposed the construction real estate market risk early warning mentality.And in the massive investigations and in the real diagnosis analysis foundation, has analyzed the Chongqing real estate industry present situation as well as the Chongqing real estate industry development contradiction and the question, and to the Chongqing real estate industry from the production stratification plane, the expense stratification plane, the transaction stratification plane and the financial stratification plane the analysis which carries on to the risk production.In summarizes the domestic and foreign economical early warning and in the real estate early warning theory achievement foundation, take synthesizes the analogue method as to design the master line, has constructed the Chongqing shop facing the street real estate early warning system, by the real estate industry development speed, the real estate market supply and demand balanced, the real estate industry interior balanced and the real estate industry and the urban economy coordination pass related four big tectonic plates to establish the real estate early warning target system, and used the analytic hierarchy process and the principal components analytic method obtains each big tectonic plate the early warning index and the synthesis early warning index. Obtains 1997-2008 Chongqing real estate industry through the synthesis early warning index development to be possible to divide into four stages: Was at the micro cold stage 1997 to 1998, is at the healthy stage 1999 to 2004, was at the slight fever stage 2005 to 2006, the development tendency slowed down 2007 to 2008, has tends to the micro cold sign.And the Chongqing real estate market superheat influence has carried on the analysis to 2006, and proposed stimulates the land storage quantity, the improvement supply structure, guides the housing gradient to expend, the containment speculation buying homes and the development financing channel and so on the related measure.Finally carries on the present situation to the Chongqing current real estate market to put forward a policy proposal.