Study On Real Estate Early-warning System Of Xi'an

Since 2005 year, the regional real estate market has appeared "the heat" phenomenon.Following the west development policy gradually implementation, Xi'an as west "bridgehead", there are hot signs of the market movement in Xi'an real estate market. There also appears the house price to climb, the commodity apartment investment cost increased range enlarges and the internal structure is not balanced and so on.This article takes the macroscopic economical warning theory as the basis and real estate economical cycle undulatory theory; takes synthesizes simulation method as the master design. We have constructed the Xi'an real estate early warning system. By real estate industry with national economy coordination relations, by real estate market supply and demand coordination relations and real estate industry interior coordination relations, we have established the real estate early-warning target system and used the principal components analytic method to obtain the early-warning index of each tectonic plate and the synthesis early warning index. In this foundation Markov model has been introduced to forecast, and established model to forecast real estate market in Xi'an 2006.The analysis result of demonstration showes that the development of the Xi'an real estate market approximately divides into three stages. They are less cold movement stage, normal operation stage, less hot movement stage. As a whole Xi'an real estate development is basic normal, the house price rises steadily. But the Xi'an real estate market started heat up from 2002, In 2004 forewarning index entered in the less hot region, in 2005 forewarning chart demonstrates the market has achieved the upper limit in the less hot region. It must bring to the attention in real estate field, take the regulative measure. According to system forecast, the Xi'an real estate market still is the seller-market in 2006, but the situation of demand exceeds supply can hasten slow, the internal structure still insufficiently balance. So itt needs to enlarge construction quantity of the low-grade house. The market movement still is in the less hot stage. So it must unify the market and the government regulations to maintain the Xi'an real estate market healthy and orderly development. Demonstration analysis explained that the real estate early-warning system may carry on the appraisal to the city real estate development in the article. It also sends out the forecast and the warning, has the reference value and the practical significance to forewarning about the real estate market of various cities.