Security Evaluation Of Coal Industry In China

Low reserve-production ratio, net import of coal and low level of mechanization of coal mining are impediments to the development of coal industry in China, and those three are looming large recently. Under the background of advocating the development of low-carbon economy, coal industry faces the new challenge from the exploitation of new energy sources as well. As the traditional and basic industry to the national economy, coal industry being the significant part of national economic security plays the vital role in nation development and prosperity.Using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper sets up a security evaluation to coal industry in China based on systematical analysis of the development characteristic of coal industry and its main influence factors. Firstly, considering coal development situation and its main influencing factors, the industry security evaluation index system is built, combined with results of previous studies. Each index in the system is set within a reasonable limited range and the corresponding weights are set by using analytic hierarchy process. Using this system and grey prediction model, the industry’s development trend in next five years and security evaluation are estimated based on the historical data from2004to2012. Finally the conclusion shows that China’s coal materials industry is in the "insecure" situation, should draw relevant government departments sufficient attention. Surging coal import owning to unsatisfied coal demand in coastal areas, adverse conditions of domestic transportation and relative low level of industrial concentration are three main reasons harmful to the development of coal industry in China. Accounting to such reasons, some suggestions are provided.