Prediction Of Land Use Change In Urban-rural Rcotone Based On The Model Of CLUE-S

When people use land to promote social and economic development, also caused landcover change. With the deepening of global change, Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC) has increasingly become a hot issue in the field of international studies. CLUE-Smodel has been an interpretation and understanding of the importance of land use change tooland instrument. CLUE-S model is built on the basis of deeply understanding of the land usechange within its system. Through comprehensive analysis of the driving action of naturalenvironmental factors and social-economic conditions, we can simulate different types of landuse change.In recent years, land use contradiction in crisscross has been a prominent problem, and itis mainly concentrated in the growing demand for land for construction and protection offarmland, orchard and woodland. Therefore, it is necessary to analysis of the mechanism ofland conflicts, changes in the process, changing trends in-depth, in order to promote therational use and protection of land resources.This paper selects Daiyue District as the study area, uses remote sensing images toextract the status of land use diagram, analysis combined with easy-to-grid technology anddriving factors that have major impact on land use change, uses correlation coefficientsobtained by logistic regression, combines with land use change driven mechanism, importsthe goal of land use demand data into CLUE-S model to predict the land use pattern in2010and2020, and verify the simulation results and evaluation.The findings and conclusions are:(1) This paper selects Daiyue District as the study area, which is rural and urban fringearea in Tai’an City. It has a strong representation to not only plain areas, but also hilly areasabout crisscross regional land use change research. In regional scale have less effect on thechange of land use, but fast economic growth and high level of social development, the timescale of the present study, mainly for urban and rural construction land increase, occupyingcultivated land, garden land, etc.It is conducive to further analyze the driving factors of landuse change in urban-rural ecotone. Therefore, this research can be of urban-rural ecotone invarious driving conditions lead to severe competition under the land contradiction of land andland allocation.(2)Selected2000and2010the two remote sensing images, with remote sensingtechnology and geographic space information technology, disambiguated the two remotesensing images, the corresponding land use status quo be acquired. Combined with the eightdriving factors: distance of the river which beyond12meters, distance of the main road,distance of the river which under12meters, distance of the urban and rural roads, distance ofthe railway, distance of the lake, distance of the downtown, distance of the village. Theregression coefficients of each driving factor were determined by Logistic regression analysismodel.(3) Take the status data in2010as the land demand data for the target year. Setting the corresponding model parameters, running CLUE-S model, land use change in2010issimulated. The accuracy was tested by the interpreted current land use map in2010. Thesimulated correct grid number is16175. The proportion of the total grids number18000is89.86%, so Po=0.8986. Thus calculate the Kappa index is0.8783. Simulation results showthat the more successful and driving factors for each land use type has a better explanation.(4)Under the natural growth scene, land requirements change constantly according to therate of change over the class of2000-2010. Land demand data of the target year was obtainedby this. Setting the corresponding model parameters, running CLUE-S model, the pattern ofland use change in2020is simulated. According to the forecast results，the area of cultivatedland and corner is reduced, the area of woodland and construction land is increased, water andunused land has little change, compared with2010. The prediction results were analyzed, thearea and reason of change significantly was found. Some rational suggestions such asindustrial area, mining scenery tourism resource, intensify protection of arable land,economical and intensive land use, protect the ecological environment were given what isabout Daiyue urban planning and promoting its economy development positive and stable.